NFL Picks, Week 13

Last Week: 7-8
Season: 99-63 (.611)

As we head into week thirteen, the playoff races are in full swing in both the AFC and NFC. We come off of an atrocious week picking, stung especially by the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers. We’ll admit that taking Arizona was a stretch, but the Cardinals did perform admirably against the Giants. As it stands now, the Pats have a huge game this weekend against Pittsburgh and the Patriot offense is rounding into shape. Matt Cassel picked up his second AFC Offensive Player-of-the-Week award and has tossed for 400 yards in back-to-back games. The Patriots are rolling and while the defense has continued to struggle in the red zone (31st in the league in red zone touchdown efficiency), overall they are still getting the job done (8th in the league in points allowed.) They’re on track for our revised mid-season prediction of 12-4, and 11-5 at worst (Pittsburgh and Arizona at home are the only two games of any concern at all.)

This week’s picks:

Turkey Day:
@Dallas 34, Seattle 10: Seattle is an absolute dog in Holmgren’s final season. Their stranglehold on the NFC West is gone, so much so that the Arizona Cardinals can clinch the division this week. You read that correctly. Dallas seems to be refreshed and poised for a stretch run into the playoffs.

Tennessee 24, @Detroit 6: We feel bad taking that automatic notch in the “W” column every week by picking against the Lions. The only excitement this Turkey Day will be watching to see if Drew Henson gets significant PT for the Lions as he enters the game as the #2 QB. Good luck, Drew…

Arizona 30, @Philadelphia 20: The Kurt Warner MVP Express keeps rolling while the Philly Phree Phall continues.

Sunday:
@Buffalo 21, San Francisco 16: The Bills need this game to keep any hope of making the playoffs alive. There were signs of life from Trent Edwards last week as he parlayed a shaky start into a 74% completion finish. If he can snap out of his funk, the 49ers are a good team to kick-start that process.

Baltimore 24, @Cincinnati 13: The Ravens need this game to stay in the chase with a tough stretch to finish the season. Ed Reed will be looking for the end zone again.

Indianapolis 34, @Cleveland 17: The Colts are rolling again. Indy will finish 11-5 at worst, and take the 5th seed. That said, Peter King’s calls for Peyton to be in the MVP race are ridiculous. He’s playing better lately, but still hasn’t looked remotely close to Warner or Brees’ levels, let alone the Peyton from years past.

Carolina 28, @Green Bay 24: This could be a de facto elimination game for two up and down teams. The Packers should take this, but both Green Bay and Carolina have earned a spot in the New Orleans Saints camp where logic goes out the window and we’re better off Costanzaing our pick. So, Carolina takes it.

@Oakland 20, Kansas City 17: This could be the worst game in NFL history. Unless either team plays the Lions.

Miami 38, @St. Louis 20: After being humiliated and shut down by the Pats, Miami will take their frustrations out on a Rams team that seems to have quit.

Chicago 23, @Minnesota 21: The Bears are the pick here because we just can’t don’t want to picture this Minnesota team winning the NFC North.

@New England 31, Pittsburgh 13: Pittsburgh can’t answer the Pats’ rejuvenated offense under Matt Cassel. Roethlisberger has been terrible, Willie Parker is questionable, and the Patriots seem ready for their annual stretch run. This should be a big game for NFL Defensive Rookie-of-the-Year Jerod Mayo. We see a defensive TD for New England, and a laugher in another game guaranteed by Steeler scrub Anthony Smith.

Denver 28, @Favre 27: The Favres are a good story, a dynasty in the making, destined to host the AFC title game (while the Giants host the NFCCG!!!), and probably the best AFC team ever…if you’re ESPN. Otherwise, their asses haven’t been crowned, and they are just a mediocre team that had a good run of football bound to slip back into their mistake prone ways. It may not be this week, but with Denver coming off of a humiliating 21 point home loss to the Raiders and yet still miraculously two games ahead of San Diego, the Favres are bound to get the Broncos’ best effort. The QB who plays like a linebacker also throws like one…right into the hands of a Denver defender for the deciding points.

@San Diego 27, Atlanta 20: The Chargers are another enigma. We see loads of talent and a squad that has epic underachievement stamped on its forehead. Only once this season have the Chargers played a complete, inspired game. When seeking revenge against New England. That San Diego team has been missing, and if they don’t show up this week, may be watching the playoffs on their Vizios.

New Orleans 31, @Tampa Bay 14: 51 points? OK, Brees. One last chance.

@Washington 21, New York Giants 20: This should be the game of the week. The Giants are the best team in football, but the Redskins are not at all far behind.

Jacksonville 24, @Houston 17: If the Jaguars come out flat and lose, Jack Del Rio can start cleaning out his office because he’s lost his team. We don’t think that will be the case. We see Jacksonville going on a late charge, but not enough to make the playoffs in the competitive AFC.

Congrats to Michigan State: Big Ten Champs

Let's be the bigger person in all this and give credit where credit is due: Michigan State won the Big Ten outright this year, and deserves our respect. I didn't think it was possible - not many did after the loss to Penn State - but they pulled it off.

Just seconds after he called two timeouts to temper Penn State's celebration (no doubt because he knew his team was the one who was supposed to celebrate) and minutes after going for a useless two-point conversion so that he could lose by less (note: still a loss), Michigan State had won their first Big Ten title in years.

Final Big Ten Standings*:

Michigan State	9.4-2
Penn State	7-1
Ohio State	7-1
Northwestern	5-3
Iowa	5-3

Congrats to Mark Dantonio, a coach who is nothing if not classy. I look forward to his display of even-tempered coaching at the Rose Bowl, where they will undoubtedly beat their Pac-10 opponent.

* - Source: "I'll go on record and say this one counts as more than one." The final tally was 4.4 at season's end.

Curbstomping

Suck on that, Joey Porter.

Fire Scott Shafer, Part II

As of 11/23, the day after the OSU game:

Pass Efficiency Defense Rating: 81st
Turnovers Gained: 63rd
Interceptions: 75th
Sacks: 35th
Rush Defense: 51st
Pass Defense: 87th
Total Defense: 66th
Scoring Defense: 90th

Scott Shafer had the 51st best rush defense with one of the most experienced/talented D-lines in the nation, and he was 35th in sacks despite the blitz being his supposed forte.

Stanford, the team he left, was 10th in sacks.

Louisville, Ron English's new team, is 49th in total defense with a far less talented roster.

Florida International had a better defense than us (80th).

Fire Scott Shafer.

NFL Picks

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 92-55 (.626)

Late, and with no commentary. It's been a busy week.

Carolina 24, @Atlanta 13
@Cleveland 20, Houston 17
@Dallas 31, San Francisco 10
@Denver 20, Oakland 17
Tampa Bay 24, @Detroit 13
@Tennessee 24, Favre 13
Buffalo 27, @Kansas City 21
Chicago 30, @St. Louis 13
New England 34, @Miami 16
@Arizona 31, New York Giants 30
@San Diego 24, Indianapolis 20
Washington 30, @Seattle 17
@Jacksonville 27, Minnesota 10
@Baltimore 17, Philadelphia 14
Green Bay 28, @New Orleans 17

Fire Scott Shafer (an Amazing Statistic)

This year, we gave up 40+ points four times. We gave up 40+ points a total of four times from 1969-2007. That's the entirety of the Bo/Moeller/Lloyd years.

Fire Scott Shafer. Fire him now.

Prediction

62-0, Good Guys

Michigan - UCLA Running Diary

I've been in a total sports malaise over the last eight months. Beginning with the Frozen Four implosion against Notre Dame, following through the Jazz and Pistons putting together less-than-inspiring playoff runs and getting magnified by the underdog Cardinals' late season collapse, I've found it difficult to get my emotions up for sports. Even the usual surge of excitement at the beginning of the football season was crushed in short order.

The next 40 hours, however, have the possibility of redeeming an entire year of "meh." A win against Ohio State on Saturday will send us into a 9 month of off-season of unbridled optimism, secure in knowing that RichRod is Tressel's new daddy. Logic and facts may not be on our side, but it won't matter, because Ohio State will have fallen to Michigan.

Tonight's basketball game, however, is a different beast. Rather than a last shot at salvaging the worst season in memory, this game could be a significant bellwether for the rest of the season. While last year's team managed to hang with a Final Four-bound UCLA for 30 minutes before succumbing to superior talent and depth.

Now, we will see what an improved Michigan team can do against a lesser UCLA team in Madison Square Garden. Granted, you can improve craptastic and drop excellent down a few pegs and still have a yawning talent gap.

Nonetheless, if Michigan can play a solid game and remain competitive (or, God willing, actually pull out a win), then the remaining non-conference schedule suddenly looks like a promising opportunity to rack up wins and build confidence. The NCAAs are almost certainly out of the question this year, but a return to the NIT is within the realm of possibility.

If Michigan gets run off the floor, however, then this year will already look like the vast majority of the past decade before we even get to December.

Let's see how things go...

First Half
Pre-tip: We would look more intimidating with some big-ass "M"s on our shorts.

See...much more intimidating

20:00: We lose the opening tip. Game over.

19:36: Former walk-on at PG, former walk-on at QB. Why the hell can't we have real scholarship players?

19:13: Josh Shipp takes two steps, a jump step, and then one more step. He's NBA ready.

17:45: This game is sloppy. UCLA can't hit a shot, and Michigan can't box out to prevent offensive rebounds.

17:05: Manny is getting double teamed every time he touches the ball. I'm guessing that Howland is OK with Zach Gibson shooting threes.

16:00: Stellar...0-4 from the field. We're on pace to score 10 points on no field goals. Meanwhile, UCLA is breaking down the 1-3-1 fairly well with dribble penetration-kickouts and strong drives. Down 9-1 at the first time out, I decide it's a good time to pour a drink.

15:10: Michigan blows a fast break opportunity, but makes up for it by breaking up a potential rim-shaking alley-oop.

14:25: Michigan gets a pair of field goals from Manny Harris, prompting Howland to call a time out and Dick Vitale to declare, "He'll play at the next level." Recent history tells us that the next level for Michigan players is Isreal. Mazel Tov, Manny!

14:09: Michigan switches to man-to-man which completely confuses UCLA. The ball is thrown away, which is the fifth turnover for UCLA already. Note to Howland: asking Tommy Amaker for coaching help was a bad move.

13:00: So far, Dickie V loves Collison, thinks Manny is going pro, and declares that Jrue Holliday will be a star. My guess is that by the end of the game, every player will have a grandiose statement given to them. Seriously...has Vitale ever just said, "This kid would struggle to dominate the coed intramural league"?

11:41: Collison just ran by three Wolverine defenders en route to the hoop. Apparantly it is some sort of team norm that rotating is frowned upon. Harris makes a half-hearted swipe at the ball, but never threatens to actually impact the play.

10:48: After 30 seconds of ineffective offense, Kelvin Grady nails a three from about a foot and a half beyond the arc. You can't argue with results, but if that's what the offense is going to look like, we should prepare for the CBI now.

8:46: Gibson suddenly became an offensive rebounding machine. That was useful, because there was a squad of professional bricklayers out there. Four shots, four misses. Ugh. Deficit is now eight.

7:40: Eight turnovers for UCLA so far (vs. one for Michigan). A couple were careless plays, but most have been due to decent defense. Meanwhile, Vitale is expressing disbelief that Michigan has been out of the tournament for over a decade. Mercifully, he's cut off mid-sentance for a commercial break. Michigan trails 18-12.

7:11: Michigan has zero second chance points. That's probably not good. Also, Michigan is shooting 1-8 from the three point line, and 6-21 overall. Nonetheless, the deficit is only three. I don't think that's sustainable.

5:20: I'll give Vitale some credit: when he isn't actively blowing whomever just made a good play, he actually does a great job explaining what's going on. His breakdown of why the 1-3-1 is frustrating UCLA so much was actually quite interesting. If he would drop the schtick and take some Quaaludes, he'd be phenomenal. I've avoided ACC games for so long, I forgot that he actually knows some stuff.

4:02: Gibson gets his second foul, but otherwise Michigan is doing well, foul-wise. Only 6 team fouls, and UCLA still hasn't taken a free throw. Beilein has the doing a much better job of not beating themselves with fouls and turnovers so far. Of course, if Michigan doesn't start shooting better than 30.8% percent, it won't matter.

2:22: Five quick points from Dragovic have opened up an eight point lead for UCLA. He made a great cut to get a completely uncontested layup (another fully absent defensive rotation), and then drained a three on the next possession.

1:25: CJ Lee had a beautiful touch pass to DeShawn Sims for a monster dunk. That was highlight reel-worthy.

0:41: Sims battles down low for a rebound and puts is back in. SECOND CHANCE POINTS! He is the only Wolverine shooting better than 50%, and one of two who are shooting better than 25% so far.

0:00: Two ugly shot attempts to end the half leave Michigan down 29-23.

The two trends of the first half were UCLA's inability to hold on to the ball, and Michigan's inability to shoot it. I would expect that both regress to the mean a little bit in the second half. Will that be enough to allow Michigan to compete to the end?

Two different times, UCLA scored multiple quick baskets to open up lead of eight and ten. Both times, I steeled myself for six to eight more points before the bleeding stopped. Instead, Michigan played methodically, slowed the pace, and hit shots. If nothing else, this is a much more disciplined and steady team than we've seen in recent years.

Now if only that discipline would bleed over to shot selection, maybe we'd be shooting better than 1-12 from behind the arc (note: some of those shots were forced by fantastic UCLA defense that didn't allow any sort of penetration, but at least 7 of them were just dumb shots that weren't properly set, usually with 20 or more seconds left on the shot clock).

Second Half
19:42: STUUUUUUUUUUUU!

19:07: Manny Harris with a sweet block from behind leads to a tie-up. Alternate possession rule means that the defensive effort is essentially unrewarded.

18:22: STUUUUUUUUUUUU! Douglas nails a three from a good foot behind the NBA line. That's nice.

17:06: Another poor defensive rotation allows James O'Keefe to get to the basket unmolested. His shot attempt suspiciously reminded me of...me, as he bricked the layup. Anthony Wright commits a foul on the second chance though, giving UCLA it's first free throw attempt of the game.

16:39: Manny Harris gives Michigan it's first lead of the night on a pretty three point shot. That's five points, a block, and an assist so far this half for Harris. After a 2-9 performance in the first, this is nice to see. Jevohn Sheppherd is getting ready to come in though...that isn't so nice to see.

15:28: UCLA has been getting off better shots by attacking the gaps in the 1-3-1 a lot better than they did in the first half. I'm guessing we'll see a switch to man-to-man in a moment to try to confuse UCLA.

14:49: Manny with an off-balance three. His feet were pointed about 45 degrees from the basket...I have no idea how he hit that.

13:10: Are we sure that Stu Douglas is old enough to be in college? He looks like he should still be playing JV ball.

11:18: Michigan being outrebounded 31-18. I know that Beilein's system doesn't lend itself to lots of rebounds, but UCLA lost it's entire frontcourt last year. We need to be able to do better than that. Meanwhile, Michigan has pretty much held the lead for five minutes, holding a four point edge right now.

10:20: Dick Vitale, while talking about Laval Lucas-Perry, says that he "can flat out stroke it." I need to start compiling his inadvertently (or advertently?) gay comments. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

9:50: Rather than panicking, UCLA runs the defense ragged with a series of cross court passes, culminating in a Darren Collison three pointer. Those are actually his first points of the half.

8:40: Manny Harris, for the second time in the last four minutes, throws the ball away on a fast break. He is alternating making me jump off the couch (thus disturbing my dog, who is contentedly snoring away on the floor) and grind my teeth with enough force to hurt my jaw.

7:51: Michigan still holds a one point lead at the TV timeout, and has the ball. Collison and Anthony Wright are the only players with three fouls so far. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that UCLA would miss Collison a little more than we would miss Wright.

6:23: "Michigan patient as always. They'll run down the clock looking for a good shot." With that comment, we have officially left the Amaker era.

5:26: As Shipp drove in to give UCLA the lead, he committed a charge. These breaks can't keep going our way, can they?

4:38: Two quick offensive fouls (Manny and CJ Lee) has allowed UCLA to take the lead, 47-46. The wheels feel like they could come flying off any second now.

4:16: Alfred Aboye misses one of two from the line. UCLA is only 5-10 from the charity stripe. They are doing everything possible to not close out the game.

3:50: STUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU! Another NBA three pointer with a hand in the face, followed by strong defense in not allowing UCLA to reverse the ball. Michigan has retaken a one point lead.

2:20: On a fast break, Harris makes a good pass to Stu (allowing me to save a $20 dental deductible), who sees Sims trailing. All of this selfless play and intelligent passing is so alien to me, I don't know quite what to think. I have decided another drink is in order. Michigan leads 51-48, though Dickie V is doing everything he can to jinx it with constant "this could be a big moment for Michigan basketball!" comments. Fucker.

1:30: Manny turns it over (AGH!), but Stu gets it back from Collison. The shot clock expired, so the question is whether or not Collison had possession, which would reset the clock. I can honestly say that if UCLA has the ball after this time out is over, my heart may stop working. I'm not used to being excited by Michigan basketball. Hell, check out my last running diary. Heavy doses of sarcasm as a defense mechanism.

Damnit...UCLA ball. I can't feel my right arm.

0:56: David Merritt commits a foul. Apparently, getting run over by Josh Shipp who is trying to get a rebound is illegal. Being in the double bonus does not help. Of course, Shipp missed the second free throw. Holy crap!

0:28: DeShawn Sims with the backdoor cut for a tremendous dunk, giving Michigan a four point lead. Any neutral fan at MSG is rooting loudly for Michigan right now.

0:14: UCLA turns it over. Michigan with a four point lead. This game is over.

0:12: Time to ice it from the line. Sims, who has been a beast this whole game, steps up to shoot one-on-one.

0:05: Sims missed the front end, and Dragovic hit a three pointer. I am suddenly terrified that I have carried on this blog's tradition of serious jinxeration

0:04: Manny hits the front end of the one-on-one.

0:04: HE HITS THEM BOTH!!!

0:00: THE WOLVERINES WIN IT! THE WOLVERINES WIN IT! OH MY GOD, THE WOLVERINES WIN IT!!!

Well, that was unexpected. There will be time for analysis later. There will also be time to fear two games against Duke in the next two weeks. Right now, I'm going to have a drink, and celebrate the biggest win of the Beilein era.

GO BLUE!

Michigan-OSU Tailgate Spoof

MadTV gets in on the action with this skit about the Food Network traveling to Ann Arbor for gameday. If MadTV does it, you KNOW it's pure comedy!

"The TEAM, The TEAM, The TEAM!" (YouTube Speech)

This seems too good to be true. Can anyone verify that this is the actual speech? And if it is authentic, aren't I right that Les Miles sounds exactly like Bo did?

Regardless: "It's gonna be Michigan again. Michigan."

Awesome. Go Blue!

No Signature Victory Since Bo Died: More Reflections

Adding on to what Peabody and Kyle have said, I have some more reflections as OSU week...well, happens.

It's sad that this is how Holy Week begins. Any other time, I'd be thinking of zingers or otherwise insulting Buckeyes. But as I write this on the two-year anniversary of Bo's death (though this will be published the next day because I'm at work and can't finish it all tonight) I find myself thinking about the old coach, the new coach, and where we are going.

I can still remember my eyes watering while sitting at the Law Quad. I had a pathology exam and was trying to cram a few hours in before heading over to Peabody's to watch what could have been the game of the century. To my dad and me, Bo was as important a figure as anyone outside the family could be. The day he died a large picture of my dad with Bo went up on our mantel; larger than that of my aunt, who was just diagnosed with breast cancer. Not that we don't love you, Aunt Janis. But this was my dad putting it up - he's usually not the one to do something like that. Rookie mistake, perhaps.

But that was just a small snapshot of what Bo meant to Michigan. He was the omnipresent figure who kept the program steady. Lloyd filled in admirably when called upon, but Bo was still always there.

Anyway, I never thought that Michigan's program would go downhill so much since Bo died. I thought he left it in good shape and his presence was more figurehead, like the Emperor of Japan, or Beano Cook. But apparently he was a lot more. We lost that game and haven't been the same since; the freefall began and we haven't stopped. We won't hit rock bottom until (at the earliest) we get demolished by Ohio State on Saturday.

Maybe it's a curse. Who knows. But we haven't been the same since Bo. Had Bo been alive I am convinced Les Miles would be our coach, and we'd be 8-4 at season's end. I find myself watching Les Miles press conferences because he talks like Bo. I miss Bo. I like Bo.

I like Rich Rodriguez, too. I do. And I am still hopeful he will get us on the right track next year, and I will still go to the games and root like hell. But like Peabody, I stopped living and dying by Michigan this year. I always said that 2005 took off years of my life; 2008 has done no such thing. And that's probably worse.

We haven't had a truly signature win to hang our hats on since Bo died, and there is none in sight, at least until the 2009 season materializes over the first 5-6 games.

Sure, we had the Florida win to send Lloyd out. But in some ways, it was incredibly frustrating. We moved the ball up and down the field seemingly at will, so where was that before? Why not go with that spread offense in other games? We stopped a running quarterback. The best one. How? Where was that?

Still, I am extremely grateful for the win. Don't get me wrong. But it now seems like a requisite send-off that The Football Gods gave us as a token of appreciation for Lloyd's running of a good program. A gold watch from on high. Not characteristic of any other team we fielded since the end of 2006.

There was also the Wisconsin game this year. This would certainly have been a signature win had we not been so incredibly terrible ever since. We have shown no improvement, and if anything have become worse. The Wisconsin game now smells of the same stink that the rest of the 2008 season has, and it's existence is an exception and not the rule. A turd-smelling, but good-looking anomaly. But I suppose for a week or so the game still was significant. We had that glimmer of hope, and that game definitely made me feel better about being a Michigan fan than any since probably Notre Dame 2006.

Every year, I write a message from The Football Gods. It's intricate, cites some sort of religious text, and is general pretty well-received. I can't do it this year. I will be watching the game and praying, but I can't muster up any hope for 2008. Our season will come to an abrupt halt on Saturday afternoon, and I won't be upset.

Would beating Ohio State be a "signature" victory? Who knows. It won't happen, so I won't postulate.

Nevertheless, Go Blue. See you on Saturday.

Reflections

It's Beat Ohio week. Or, at least that is what the calendar says, anyways. This has been a pretty memorable week for this blog since its inception. We had the 2006 "Game of the Century" hype, which culminated in our contribution to CSTV, some cool wallpapers that made their way around these here interwebs, and quite a bit of hits. Last year, we had the revival of Michigan football following the early season disaster, and a game with the Big Ten title on the line. MATW took advantage of that opportunity to promote the Henne Soulja Boy phenomenon, hoping for one dance on the fifty following the game. Sure, both of these games ended up being a disappointment for us, but at least we had hope.

For the first time in my lifetime, I do not expect to beat Ohio. Sure, we've been underdogs before (most recently 95, 96, 98, 02, 05, 06, 07) and won some of them and lost some of them. However, for the most part, the expectation from my ever optimistic mind was a Michigan win. That has evaporated along with everything else I thought I knew went with Michigan football. Bowl games and winning seasons being a couple of them. I stopped expecting wins about the same time I crossed into Pennsylvania for the Penn State game in October. I stood out tailgating last week on a November morning completely content with the fact that we were about to lose to Northwestern.

It was sitting out at that Northwestern game when things became a little clearer for me. I first thought, like many other fans, that I would be able to wear my attendance as some sort of a badge of honor. Forget my attendance at damn near every game-home and road- over the last decade. Anyone can road trip while following a team playing for the Rose Bowl every year. No, it was certainly something special to spend the afternoon in a rain/sleet/snow combination at thirty degrees watching a 3-7 team play. Of course, I became complacent watching poor play after poor play, and determined if this was the badge of ultimate fandom, my MSU friends who have done this for twenty years would mock me for my self pity. Sometime before the half it hit me, really hit me, that we were a week away from Ohio. And I became angry.

I became really angry. This is supposed to be my favorite week of the year. Michigan and Ohio. The greatest game in sports. But the disappointment of the 2008 Michigan team had taken such a luster off of the game, that I had somewhat forgotten about the game. Expecting to lose to Northwestern was one thing, but I never thought there would be a time when I was not only somewhat apathetic about the Ohio game, but actually dreading instead of counting down to kickoff. So I thought, and thought, and got more angry. What was the angle I would take this week? Generally, we're fairly confident on this blog in November, and get after Ohio something good. What would we post this year? "HA! We're going to cover!?" No, I couldn't muster up the energy to look stupider than I generally do when talking smack in these posts. Instead, I planned on writing the first significantly pessimistic post that didn't double as a joke. I summarized my thoughts all weekend and planned on penning a Monday morning post dissing DickRod, the direction of the program, the terrible, undisciplined mistakes, the gimmickness of the offense, and loads of generally similar angry rants. But I waited. I waited until this afternoon and decided that's not what this blog is all about. I realized that the cold rain beating down on my frozen head last Saturday didn't mean that I was some sort of ultra fan, but it did hold meaning. It meant that while I may no longer get so upset that I break things (coughOhio2005cough), I still care. A lot. If I truly was apathetic, I would've turned off my alarm clock when it buzzed at 7:00 on Saturday morning, and stayed in my warm bed instead of pulling my sleep-deprived body onto my feet and stood outside in the freezing rain huddled over a fire at 8:00 am waiting for a game I knew was going to be a loss.

So, here we are. Just days away from what may not even be the second biggest game in the Big Ten this weekend, but by noon on Saturday will be the biggest game of the year for me. And despite the desperation, disappointment, anger and frustration, I will watch every snap, hoping and praying and believing in the impossible. Because that's just what sports are all about.

That said, today is the two-year anniversary of the passing of Bo Schembechler. While Kyle posted it below, it's worth a second mention. Just twenty-four months ago, Michigan was on top of the world. On the eve of the greatest game this rivalry would ever see, we lost a man who was as influential as any in establishing the game. Michigan hasn't quite been the same since. Bo meant a lot to a lot of people, myself included. No Ohio week would be complete without mention of either Bo or Woody Hayes, so I'll leave this post with the reaction I posted two years ago today after hearing of Bo's passing, and on the eve of the game of the century.

I was a nobody in the grand scheme of Michigan Football. I really had no impact on the scoreboard, in getting Ws and Ls in the standings. To me, I was just grateful to be given the opportunity to see the games from the sidelines, participate in team functions, and live out my dream of running through the tunnel into the stadium and feeling that incredible rush of adrenaline.

Bo Schembechler WAS Michigan. Heck, the freakin' building was named after him. I'll never forget the first time I met Bo. He had come down to watch a practice, and unaware, I turned around to see him standing next to me. Having memorized his entire biography, and having waited for the moment I would be able to talk to the man who built the program I loved so much, I naturally froze up. I'm not sure what combination of sounds came from my mouth, but I'm certain they were inaudible, and jibberish. Bo just smiled, stuck out his hand, and introduced himself. "Hey, son, I'm Bo."

After a few months, I was pretty comfortable with seeing him frequently, and we had become acquaintances. Ohio State week in 1999 changed that. I live for this rivalry. It's a bond I share with the old coach. I waited all year for the OSU week, and after practice on Tuesday, I caught up with Bo on the stairs heading up to his office. I asked him some sort of a question about his first OSU game, and that lead to about an hour and a half discussion in his office that night about the rivalry, and what it meant to him. Every night that week, following practice, I headed up and chatted with Bo for a solid hour or so. He humored me, and relived the great moments of the rivalry he helped build. His intense desire to beat his friend and mentor, Woody Hayes. His experiences in Columbus, the little things that players did the week leading up to the game that only someone so infatuated such as myself would care about. I'm sure he had better things to do, but the old man made sure to answer every question I had, elaborate on every story I asked about, and re-tell things he's probably talked about thousands of times.

It was Bo who introduced me to Bobby Knight, a guy he remembered me talking about once in the football building. I helped out with the Millie Schembechler Charity Golf Classic over the summer, and when Coach Knight showed up to golf, Bo took a little time to introduce me. That was the thing about the old coach- he never forgot anything. Once he had spent some time with you, he remembered everything you'd talked about. For someone of such great importance- he was always willing to take the time to speak with anyone, and show genuine interest in what you had to say. To someone like me, that meant the world. I'll never forget OSU week, when it was in the low 30s outside, and I was wearing only a t-shirt. Coach Carr asked me what in the hell was wrong with me, and told me I would be catching pneumonia. I told him that I heard in Columbus, they wore only a grey t-shirt for this week, and therefore I would only wear 1 blue t-shirt. Coach told me I was spending too much time with Bo.

I think my love for Michigan was only eclipsed by Bo's, and I think everything he did was with the best interest of the program, and his players in mind. Bo was a class act, who has helped to shape generations of Michigan men.

The irony of Bo's death is not lost on me. Bo blew off an appointment with his doctor last night to speak to the Michigan team. Bo was always talking about his heart, joking that it was going to get the best of him sooner or later, so he might as well live life the way he wanted. Believe me, that he did. I think that while Bo wouldn't be able to watch the game in Columbus, he's now going to be doing one better. Bo will fittingly get to watch the biggest game ever with a birds-eye view, with his old pal Woody.

Thank you, Bo. For the memories you gave me.

Go Blue, Win for Bo.

Bo

Two years ago today, on the verge of the biggest regular season game in the program history, Bo Schembechler passed away.

As this week goes on, there will be plenty of time to dissect this season and hate on the Buckeyes. For today, however, I will be raising a glass in honor of a Michigan legend, and an all around good man.

Worst. Season. Ever.

It's Still Amazing...

Regardless of the coin flip.

ME-OW!

Who are we?

The Wildcats Wolverines!

Who are we gonna beat?

The Wildcats!

Rooooaaaaaaarrrr!

Northwestern's Nystique

Northwestern blog Lake the Posts has a little diddy up about how Michigan is no longer feared in the Big 10, specifically by Northwestern.

FAIL.

His argument is basically that a) we suck this year and b) the Northwestern games have been somewhat competitive in recent years.

Though the first part is true, the second is laughably wrong. First, I'll steal from the comments section of that post for NWU's record vs. Michigan:

Alltime: 14-52-2
Last 20: 3-17-0
Last 10: 2-8-0
Last 5: 0-5-0

So while you can argue the Wildcats aren't afraid this year, recent history suggests that had this Michigan team resembled teams of the past 5-10 years, the Cats should be shaking in their (puss 'n) boots.

But to paraphrase our president elect - let's be clear about this. Any time Northwestern has been on our schedule, it has been an overlooked game that is barely a step above a bye week. And we've still won easily. If the games have seemed close - and I don't think they have - it's because we're not throwing in our entire cadre of weapons and saving them for more important, threatening, teams. The reason why the only NWU game I remember since 2000 is 2003 is because of Jason Avant's catch. Other than that, the games have been decided far before the ball is kicked off. Perhaps this year is different because we are so terrible, but to say that Northwestern fans no longer fear playing Michigan because of that is shortsighted. Maybe they don't THIS year, but did they think they would win the last few times we played?

In 2005 their quarterback was on the cover of USA Today on the day they played us. They made t-shirts specifically for the game that said "1995. 2000. 2005." We were vulnerable. We were having a down year. And we kicked the shit out of them.

Northwestern, you are usually at least the smart team. So why so shortsighted all the sudden? Spending too much time with Sparty?

Random Thoughts

Random thoughts on last night's game:

• The NFL OT system is a piece of garbage. This isn’t news to anyone. Had the Patriots won, we would’ve scored and won the game. The Jets won, they scored and won the game. Requiring a team to just get into FG range in today’s game is stupid. It’s equally unfair to both sides. Perhaps a modification of the college OT system, or just playing a 5th quarter (like the NBA) would work. It incorporates offense, defense and special teams.
  
• When you’re coming off of a 16-0 season and 5 straight division titles, there are no moral victories. But when your QB is starting his 9th game since high school, you can still see good things in a loss. Cassel was outstanding last night. He looked completely comfortable running the offense and tossed for 400 yards, 3 TDs and ran for over 60 yards as well. He became the first person since the merger to throw for 400 yards and run for 60 in a game.
  
• The offense also showed great moxy coming back from the 18 point deficit, and then on the last drive taking over with a minute to go, no timeouts and needing a touchdown.
  
• The Moss catch with one second left was one of the best catches I’ve ever seen. We need to get the ball in his hands much more than we have been doing.
  
• Would it have been the wise call to go for 2 at the end of the game? It’s pretty much a given that had we won the coin toss, we score. So it’s 50/50 there. Are the odds higher that an offense with all of the momentum that has racked up 500+ yards punches it in from the 3?
  
• The bad: special teams and situational defense. The special teams coverage in the first half was awful and the main reason for the large deficit. In a 10-3 ballgame, the Pats ventured into the red zone and couldn’t convert. They settled for a FG and a 10-6 deficit, kicked off on a directional kick to minimize risk…and promptly watched Leon Washington take it 92 yards to the house. That gave NY a 17-6 lead, and the net effect of the Patriots’ drive was essentially a -4. Situational defense was worse. Part of it can be attributed to the youth on the field. But the defense gave up 56% on 3rd downs (9/16) and the biggest of them all coming on 3rd and 15 in the overtime. NY threw to the TE Keller, whose route was recognized by a hesitating Brandon Meriweather. Meriweather then had a chance to stop him a yard short, but went for the jarring hit instead of the wrap-up, and Keller stretched for the first down. That’s a play that Rodney Harrison recognizes earlier and is able to break up. Meriweather has been playing well, but the young safeties and linebackers (Woods, Guyton) were just a half-step behind where they will be later on in the year.
  
• On offense, a couple of glaring mistakes cost the Patriots the opportunity to start the comeback earlier, and possibly win in regulation. Coming out of the half down 24-13, the Pats drove downfield quickly only to see a first down completion to Ben Watson result in a turnover after Watson tried to protect the ball and stripped himself of possession. On the next drive, again New England drove into Jet territory only to see a 23 yard loss on a miscommunication on a long snap; yet another unforced drive killer. Jabar Gaffney also dropped a crucial pass that would’ve gone for a first down.
  
• Jerod Mayo all but won the Defensive Rookie-of-the-Year last night. 20 tackles, 16 solo to add to his already impressive rookie season. He’s quickly becoming the best defensive player on the Pats.
  
• Gary Guyton looked good relieving Tedy Bruschi, and looks like he may be the future of the team in that role as well.
  
• Michigan’s Pierre Woods had a decent game playing for the injured Adalius Thomas, coming up with a huge sack in overtime that could’ve changed the outcome of the game. He still has a ways to go, but overall appeared to be comfortable in his role and capable.
  
• The team really missed Ty Warren’s pressure tonight, Mike Wright did a fair job replacing Warren, but there were several plays where Favre let the ball go just before contact, and Warren may well have gotten there to make those plays. Hopefully he doesn’t miss any significant time with the groin injury.
  
• The ten day layoff before the game in Miami is huge for this team to get some healthy bodies for the stretch run.
  
• I said that the Pats would go 7-1 in the second half of the season and finish 12-4. At this point, it requires a 6-0 finish, which I don’t see as unlikely. Assuming Warren is able to come back and no other major injuries occur, the only game that may drop that prediction to 11-5 is the Pittsburgh game. The Pats have @Miami, Pittsburgh, @Seattle, @Oakland, Arizona and @Buffalo. The Steelers and Cardinals are the only real threats on that list (yes, I know Miami already beat us, but I have a hard time seeing the gimmick plays working twice) and they are home games. The Jets travel to Tennessee, which will be a loss, and even the AFC East back up.

NFL Overtime:

A joke.

The AFC East lead was decided by "Tails."

Michigan is Like a Family

Here's a quote from Craig Roh, incoming four-star defensive end recruit:

"They treat everyone like family, whether you're a freshman or not. I really like that each player gets treated the same, and with respect."

I think I speak for everyone when I say: Justin Boren, I hope your gastric bypass surgery fails like Fat Chuck's did.

We may be 3-7, but RichRod has the players going strong and the morale surrounding the program surprisingly high.

NFL Picks Week 11

Last Week: 9-4
Season: 82-49 (.625)

Despite our hatred for the New York Jets RatsFavres, we were going to jump right into picks this morning without so much as a rant about that slob Ratgini, his overrated squad, or the ancient QB. Then, we logged onto SI.com to read some articles and were hit with this bomb from a coward who doesn’t want to get knocked out tonight player on the Favres offense who went “unnamed:”

One Jets offensive player, who spoke under the condition of anonymity because he didn't want to provide bulletin board fodder for the Patriots, talked about being "sick to our stomachs" about the Jets' 19-10 loss in Week 2 at the Meadowlands. He felt the Patriots were vulnerable - particularly on defense. Not to mention it was the first game with Matt Cassel at quarterback, after Tom Brady was injured in Week 1 vs. the Chiefs. The player spoke matter-of-factly about how "slow" and "old" a number of the New England defenders are and how he believes the Jets should be able to put up "a lot of points" on them tonight.

Yes, a guy who is playing for a team quarterbacked by an AARP member is calling the Patriot defense out as “old and slow.” Ouch. Like most myths out there, the “old and slow” stigma for the Patriot defense comes mainly from the visibility of their leaders—Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel—both of whom are the senior members of the squad. But, nonetheless, the comments provoked a little “mythbusting” similar to that we used against the Chargers last January when something similar came up. Using the depth charts from ESPN.com (and substituting accordingly newly acquired Ty Law for released Justin Miller on the Favres side, and Brandon Meriweather for IR’d Rodney Harrison on the Pats) the Favres actually have an older defense than the Patriots. The Favres’ base 3-4 starts 4 players over 30 with Law’s addition compared to only 3 for the Patriots. Furthermore, the average age of the Favres defense is 28.9 years while the Pats run a 27.27 year average. The two youngest players on either defense? Jerod Mayo and Gary Guyton, the future of the New England linebacking corps. The “old and slow” Patriot defense is also giving up only 17.7 ppg (6th in the league) compared to the 21.1 ppg (14th in the league) that the “older and slower” Favres are surrendering.

The Patriots have beaten the Favres 11 of the last 12 meetings. One would think the Favre players would know to just shut up and try not to be embarrassed.

On to the picks:

@New England 31, Favres 13: Rain, no rain. It doesn’t matter. Belichick is going to take the opportunity to bury Ratgini, and you bet the “old” and “slow” comments will be plastered all over the room this afternoon. Tonight is a statement game for the Patriots, Favre leaves Foxborough bruised and battered, and the Matt Cassel/BenJarvus Green-Ellis Super Bowl Express is boarding for Tampa.
@Atlanta 24, Denver 21: Denver is imploding, and we can’t pick against Matt Ryan. What this kid is doing as a rookie starter is amazing.

@Carolina 30, Detroit 9: We almost feel like we’re padding our stats by picking games the Lions play in. We need a ruling, is this cheating? It feels like Tecmo, when you would receive the kick, run back to the one and go out of bounds, take it 98 yards with Bo to the other one, put in Marcus Allen for a 98 yard loss, then run Bo 99 for the score. He would finish with 700-800 yard games, but you always felt dirty. Sorry, DB. You’ll want to stay drunk for this one, buddy.

Philadelphia 34, @Cincinnati 16: At least the Bengals have a win, so we don’t feel too dirty…

New Orleans 24, @Kansas City 13: Damn Chiefs. We really have to pick the Saints, don’t we? Ugh. This smells like a karma related “L” for not sticking to our “never pick the Saints again” proclamation.

@New York Giants 20, Baltimore 14: The Giants play a hell of a tough football game, and the way they traded blows with the Eagles last Sunday night made for great football watching. It’s easy to pick this team to beat Baltimore—and especially gratifying anytime RavenFan loses, after witnessing firsthand their disgusting nature last December when the Pats beat them on Monday Night Football.

@Tampa Bay 21, Minnesota 13: Minnesota is an efficient QB away from being a very good football team.

Chicago 27, @Green Bay 24: We went back and forth on this one because we really like Aaron Rodgers, but somehow the Bears will pull this game out on the Frozen Tundra. Kyle Orton’s return should give them a lift, though Rex Grossman played well as a substitute.

@Indianapolis 28, Houston 14: The Colts barely survived the first meeting in Houston with a miracle comeback allowing them to leave with the W. Indy is getting healthy and while the AFC South title is likely out of the question, they are mounting a wild-card run and are a dangerous team.

@San Francisco 27, St. Louis 24: Mike Singletary and Mike Martz put forth one of the most entertaining last-second meltdowns we’ve ever seen on Monday night, blowing 1st and goal from the one yard line with 40 seconds left. They managed to run 20 seconds off the clock…waiting to spike the ball. Just for that we’ll pick them. High comedy.

Arizona 31, @Seattle 17: Kurt Warner: 2008 NFL MVP.

@Jacksonville 24, Tennessee 20: The Jaguars have to get on track sooner or later, right? This really is a good team, no?
@Pittsburgh 23, San Diego 21: This is a big game for the Steelers, who let one get away last week with costly turnovers. If the Steelers lose, the terrible towels could be calling for Byron Leftwich under center.

@Miami 24, Oakland 14: Miami will be 6X better than they were last year after beating the joke of a franchise that plays in Oakland.

Dallas 28, @Washington 24: A Jerry Jones meltdown would be interesting, but a banged up Clinton Portis and the return of Tony Romo add up to a Cowboy victory.

@Buffalo 27, Cleveland 17: A battle of the pre-season hype (Cleveland) and the early-season hype (Buffalo) that have faded. Cleveland is all but done, Buffalo has a ray of hope, and the Bills prevail.

Just watch it, over and over and over...it's that good:

Aww...Little Brother Needs Big Brother's Help

What's that widdle brutta? You want big 'ole bro to come help you out?

You can't get to the Rose Bowl without us beating Ohio State? Well, I dunno. We've been awfully busy this year being sweet at everything other than football. I don't know if we'll be able to beat them this year.

Don't...no...stop...it's...ok, ok. Stop crying.

You're getting tears all over your t-shirt that has the "Old School" quote. Put down your $5 beer cup and come tell us about it.

Ok, Ok. Start from the beginning.

So you need us to beat OSU so that you can go to the Rose Bowl. I got it. Why do you need to go there? We've been a lot. It's not that cool, trust us. Have you ever been to the Capitol One Bowl? Outback?

Oh, I gotcha. 1988. Well, I guess the Rose Bowl is alright. But remember when your friend talked you into going to Cabo San Lucas for Spring break? Yeah, it wasn't that cool. You should have done the Florida trip or went out East like you wanted to.

We have a great school of educa--BLLAAAAAARRRRRRGGHH
This is the same thing.

You don't really want to go to the Rose Bowl. As your big brother, you can trust me on this one. It'll end up exactly like Spring break was, only the policia won't beat you with a nightstick at Senor Frogs because you barfed on the wet t-shirt announcer guy. Instead, USC will embarrass you in front of a national television audience, and literally anally rape you if they choose. Seriously, they'll have their way with you. And you can't give some quaaludes and your dad's credit card to any prison guards to get out of this one. You go to the Rose Bowl, you're stuck.

I'm gonna butta yo bread, Spartan
Look, trust us. We're rebuilding a dynasty - big brother stuff - so we won't even be going this year. Any other year? Maybe. But this year isn't a good year to go. Let the Buckeyes or Penn State have it. You guys are better off doing what you usually do and losing to Penn State. What about Georgia? Would you want to play them? They have a puppy!

Yeah...you like puppies. You OK? You sure? OK, good. Glad big brother could help you out. Just remember: if we DO beat Ohio State, you be sure to lose to Penn State. Those boys in the big games play too rough, we don't want you to get hurt out there.

OK now, run along. There's a girl over there talking about how the James Madison program is as good as Michigan's political science department! Go talk to her!

Sparty on!

Ohio is for Nazis

Nazi hunters are trying to put an 88-year old man on trial for possible war crimes for allegedly working as a guard at the Sobibor concentration camp during World War II. In a twist that should surprise nobody, the man lives in Ohio.

When asked about the allegations, the 88-year old John Demjanjuk replied "I don't give a damn about the whole state of Michigan!"

No word yet on Jim Tressel's level of involvement with the Third Reich, but I'm sure it was significant.

So This is What a Real Team Looks Like...

NFL Picks Week 10

Last Week: 6-8
Season: 82-49 (.625)


Well, last week was atrocious. Our first sub-.500 record of the season leads to a short and sweet picking week for week ten. We first want to smack ourselves in the face for failing to get our picks up yesterday and costing ourselves a 1-0 start to the week because we had the Broncos. Alas, what can you do?

Here goes:

@Atlanta 21, New Orleans 16: We told you. No more picking the Saints. Can we call Matt Ryan “Offensive Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan” yet?

@Chicago 24, Tennessee 21: This is the week Tennessee goes down. Really. Oh, and we’re saying this first: the Titans will lose their AFC Divisional playoff game.

Jacksonville 31, @Detroit 13: The Jaguars are struggling and on the verge of shitcanning their entire season. Luckily, they get the bye-week that comes with a “W” known as the Detroit Lions. Sorry, DB.

Carolina 27, @Oakland 10: Maybe if we let Kyle blog about the Panthers, he’d actually post an article or two… perhaps we should photoshop his picture into a Jake Delhomme shirt…

@Miami 21, Seattle 16: Miami gets two more weeks of hope before the Patriots crush their souls. Joey Porter provides entertainment for all, however.

Green Bay 27, @Minnesota 17: Minnesota should be a good team. Unfortunately, shaky QB + Childress= disaster. Not even Adrian Peterson can save them. Green Bay will win and stay alive in the NFC North chase.

@New England 31, Buffalo 6: This has the making of a statement game. The Pats aren’t down with all of this talk of Buffalo (or Favre) laying claim to their property. Their property of course being the AFC East title. This game may get ugly. Matt Cassel continues to morph into the type of QB who wins games in January.

St. Louis 20, @Favre 13: The Favres are frauds and Eric the Rat will be out on his ass by January 1.

New York Giants 20, @Philadelphia 13: The Giants, however, are every bit as for real as the Favres are fraud. MATW smells a Super Bowl rematch…

@Pittsburgh 24, Indianapolis 10: Mr. Woodley, meet Mr. Manning. Mr. Manning, meet the injured reserve list. LaMarr was fined $5K for throwing Redskin QB Jason Campbell down on a sack “in an intimidating manner.” We can’t make that up.
@San Diego 28, Kansas City 13: The Chiefs are the next best things to the Lions on a schedule. Or the Raiders. A glorified bye week for the Chargers.

Baltimore 20, @Houston 17: Baltimore is going to fade down the stretch, but will get to 6-3 with a win over the Oilers Texans.

@Arizona 34, San Francisco 14: Kurt Warner is playing so well this season that Mike Singletary wouldn’t dare drop his pants this week for fear of ending up with a football, well, you know where.

Family Values!

It appears as though fatass slob who was too lazy to participate in the OMFG!!!BARWIS!!! conditioning clever Buckeye Justin Boren dressed as DickRod for Halloween. Man, what a joker!

The most intriguing aspect of this photo isn't the brilliant use of his old Michigan apparel, rather the confirmation that those family values that drew the tub of goo to Columbus seem to revolve around breaking the law. The Tressel family. Live it.

Feagin at QB?

Steven Threet suffered a concussion against Purdue and may not play this week. While we all dread Sheri-done, Feagin has been playing QB in practice this week and we all know there was a Feagin package during Penn State week. Not that this should inspire optimism (because Threet is far and away the best option we have at that position) at least it will give us something interesting to watch on Saturday. Our guess is that he sees his first action at QB this week. This one could get ugly.

Impending McGuffie Transfer?

Word on the street is that Sam McGuffie is contemplating a transfer because he's too small for the Big Ten. File this one under the "doesn't make a difference" category, because he sucks. If anything, it would be a win because it gives our inept coaches one less option that they would think about using that takes carries away from Minor.

EDIT: While we thought it was implied, the posting of this rumor doesn't indicate that we believe it, only that it is somewhat surprising and worthy of commentary. Thankfully, one thing McGuffie can't quit (and something he's actually good at) is YouTube.

Chasing Points: The Conversion Fiasco

Time and time again you see a team make a game-changing error by chasing points going for the two point conversion too early in a game. Last night was a prime example.

The situation: New England trailed the Colts 7-6 in the third quarter. A long drive culminated in a touchdown and a 12-7 lead. With just over 7:00 to go in the third, the Patriots elected to go for two. The rational here being that a successful conversion would have given them a 7 point lead. However, the situation needs to be looked at in its entirety to completely make sense. Assuming the try is successful; the seven point lead requires a TD and XP to tie. Common sense dictates this logic. However, at this point of the game, there’s plenty of time left for multiple possessions. Assume the Patriots kick the XP and lead 13-7. If they hold Indy to a FG on their next possession, at 13-10, should the Pats fail on their next drive, holding the Colts again to a FG results in a tie game. Worst case scenario, no FGs are kicked, the Patriots lead 13-7, Indianapolis has a time consuming drive that ends in a TD and XP. Now it is 14-13, Colts. The Patriots can win with a FG. Should they score a rebuttal TD, New England then is required to…go for two and the late-game 7 point lead. Even worse case, say Indianapolis follows up their TD with a defensive stop and scores yet another TD—now the score is 21-13 Colts…but still only a one possession game. Should the Patriots score, they’d have to…go for two. Basically, they would be able to defer this decision until later in the game in either scenario. With a missed try, had the latter situation occurred, at 21-12, there is a two score game and a much larger uphill battle. The right decision here is to defer the conversion until later in the game. It’s still in play, but at that point the strategy and “what if” game is much more clear.

Now, applying the decision to the actual impact it had on the game. The Patriots missed the conversion (by a whisker), Indy scored a TD and then subsequently were forced into their two point conversion situation (up by two—which the XP would’ve done) doesn’t do much for them there. So, with Indy’s successful conversion, the net result of the Patriots’ TD and the Colts’ TD was net +1 for the Colts. Had the Patriots kicked the XP, the Colts would have certainly kicked the XP. At 13-13 pre-kick, Indy kicks to take the lead, which is a no-brainer. The game is now 14-13 Colts, and Stephen Gostkowski’s FG in the 4th instead of tying the game, now gives New England a 16-14 lead. Even more than that, prior to the kick, New England was facing 4th and inches. They initially lined up to go for it, and then quickly called their final timeout to change their minds and kick the FG. Had they been facing a one point as opposed to three point deficit, it becomes an easy decision to kick the FG and take the lead. That timeout is likely saved and would’ve been useful prior to the two-minute warning in altering the Colts’ strategy as well as conserving clock for a late-game rally. Additionally, the Colts lined up for a 52 yard FG that eventually won the game. There was little risk involved since the game was tied at the time. Facing a two point deficit instead of a tie game, Indy may have elected to go for it instead of trying the long FG. It’s a stretch, but the strategy had been altered, so who knows.The bottom line is that last night was a glaring example of why coaches chasing points early in a game and not deferring until later on when the strategic implications of the decision are a little more clear is a recipe for disaster.

Polian Strikes Again

1. Late hit? Are you kidding me? Dave Thomas needs to be smarter than that. You're not going to get the benefit of the doubt in Polian's house where the ColtRefs roam (ask: 2007 Patriots, 2006 Patriots, 2007 Chargers, 2005 Steelers, etc.)

2. Cassel was on fire today. Matched Manning strike for strike until his coaches and the officials took it out of his hands.

3. McDaniels' playcalling in the red zone was awful. Way to give your team a chance. Or not.

4. Gaffney: shades of Reche 1/21/07. That was the ballgame.

5. Belichick tried to overthink the game. The two point try was too early (chasing points ended up with Indy +1 because they converted on their predictable 2 point rebuttal), the 4th down timeout was just awful, and he Billicked (OK, Rex Ryan-ed) the offense after they converted. Go for it, get the points. They can't stop you.

6. Memo to Dean Pees/Dom Capers: Your safeties can play within 20 yards of the LOS. This is especially helpful against a team throwing about 11 yards over the middle repeatedly.

7. This is pretty much what was expected. I picked the Pats because I always do, but figured them for an "L" playing against a desperate Indy team with home field officiating advantage. Cassel is comfortable in the offense and rolling now. 12-4 is on target, and I still see a first round bye and #2 seed.

More Haikus

Offense, Defense, Suck.
Special Teams are even worse
Please bring back Lloyd Carr

3-3-5 will work
Purdue scored 48 points?
How have we won twice?

One destination...
Morgantown, West Virginia
Flight leaves from Metro...

January 1st...
Hey! The Wings are on TV!
Bowls? Overrated

Penn State, MSU
MAC, winning seasons, bowl games
DickRod: STREAK-BUSTER!

A Haiku

What the hell was that?
Seriously. What the hell?
Michigan Football