MATW is back after a brief hiatus. Learnin’ the law combined with a time-consuming project for work limited my ability to post, which combined with Sean running around the globe trying to find that pesky Carmen Sandiego and Kyle being, while, the non-blogging slacker that he is led to a dead spot for us here in the waning days of the winter. This is substantial, because while most football-centric blogs would think of this as a “dead” period, it’s one of my favorite times of the year.
The NFL trumps college football as my favorite game, and the two mesh together in the awesomeness that is the NFL Combine and the weeks leading up to the NFL Draft. In any other context, a guy may be leery tuning the television in on groups of men in tights running, lifting and sweatin’ it up on television. When it is the combine, however, that shit is just awesome. Add in the first hectic week of free agency, and it is late winter gold. The draft is a topic for several other columns. For now, it’s time to focus on the current status of the Patriots after some exciting moves were made, and why the Duckboats should be on stand by.
The Patriots pulled the trigger on the move everyone was waiting for…the Matt Cassel trade. The reaction was collective shock by the NFL community, who did a double-take when finding out that (1) Mike Vrabel was included in the deal and (2) the Patriots netted only a 2nd round pick in return. At face value, the trade seems difficult to digest. But when examined closer, it makes a heck of a lot of sense and once again shows why the New England front office is the best in all of sports.
The first component of the trade is the Cassel piece. Cassel was franchised, meaning that his signing a free-agent contract with another team would’ve netter two first round picks for the Pats. He signed the $14M tender in record time, though, eliminating that concern and placing the onus on the Pats to find a trade partner. In the interim, that was $14M in tied up cap space for Cassel and combined with Tom Brady, there was roughly $29M in total cap space allocated for the QB position. That isn’t smart business for a team needing cap room to make a couple of moves to remain dominant. The ceiling for Cassel in a trade seemed to be a first and a second round pick. Realistically in the market, a first round pick seemed more logical. With that said, what the Patriots received was equally as good. Why? Well, when applying the franchise tag to Cassel, the Pats had a thought process that was likely: (1) we tag him with the intent to keep him in case the sky falls (i.e., Brady is not healthy); (2) we tag him to control where he goes (i.e., Eff you, Jets) and receive compensation; (3) we tag him because if we don’t, he walks for free and we wait for a 2010 compensatory pick, likely in the 3rd round. With that in mind, we all know that Brady is coming back to dominate the NFL again. So, not only is option #1 shot, with it goes the leverage of saying “yeah, we’ll just keep him.” No one thought it was realistic for the Pats to keep $29M in QB salary. The market was lighter than anticipated, but rumors have the Patriots turning down first round picks from Detroit or Tampa that would’ve seen Cassel end up in Denver. Why turn down a better draft pick? Maybe the team sees Denver with Cassel (and Josh McDaniels) as a realistic threat while Kansas City is not. Is that worth 290 Dallas Chart draft points (the difference between Detroit’s #20 and the #34 the Pats got from KC)? On top of that, there’s the monetary consideration. When I first learned of the trade, I gasped, thinking the Pats received the #3 overall pick from Kansas City. I let out a sigh of relief when I found out it was the #34. Why? Peter King from SI did a good job breaking it down, but essentially the Pats now own 4 first-day picks in the draft (23, 34, 47, 58). Those four picks alone can be had for less money than last year’s #8 overall player (Derrick Harvey) made. The NFL’s rookie salary structure would be crippling to a team like the Patriots, especially in a year with no significant top-end talent. A player available at #3 wouldn’t provide as much value as 4 picks in the top two rounds, which traditionally are NFL-ready players. On top of that, what the Patriots basically did in turning a 7th round pick in 2005 (Cassel) who many thought would be cut at the end of training camp in August into the third pick of the second round is even more impressive considering the option of not franchising him at all. Had they just let him walk, he would’ve signed elsewhere (likely with the Jets) and the team would’ve received a compensatory pick, likely in round three. The compensatory picks are at the end of the round, so essentially it is a high fourth rounder. In comparison, the #34 overall pick is a de facto first round pick, meaning the team not only got $14M off the books as quickly as possible, they did so without losing out on any desirable free agents because their hands were tied with Cassel money, and also controlled where Cassel went and received what amounts to a compensatory first round pick in 2009, a year early. That is Great Management 101.
The part of the deal many Pats fans have trouble wrapping their heads around is the Vrabel move. Another move that makes the utmost of sense when closely examined. The ill-informed may say that Vrabel was a “throw-in” in order to entice the Chiefs to make the deal. After all, his versatility and leadership are qualities highly valued by Bill Belichick. However, Vrabel had a $5M cap charge for 2009. On top of that, he was due a $1M roster bonus. He also isn’t getting any younger, and has seen his play decline. While he certainly has more in the tank than say a Tedy Bruschi, this blogger has seen a significant decline in his play since the injury to Rosevelt Colvin in November of 2007. Vrabel wasn’t the same player for the rest of that season without Colvin in the lineup and had a disappointing 2008. While he was able to provide a decent pass rush and certainly has 1-2 years of good football left, this team is a championship contender and has more pressing roster needs to devote resources too, aging linebackers not being one of those needs. So, it’s plausible that Vrabel was going to be cut. In trading him to KC, the team gets to relieve themselves of about $4M in cap space and $3.3M in “real” money (his $2.3M base salary and that $1M roster bonus), Pioli gets a leader in the locker room who has some good football left, Belichick gets more money to bring in players who can put the 4th ring on his finger while ensuring a good player doesn’t end up on a team threatening the Pats, and Vrabel gets his money (had he been cut, he would likely have ended up being paid significantly less on the open market.)
The question then becomes, what do the Patriots do with this newly acquired cap space? They made a splash immediately with the signing of Fred Taylor to bolster the backfield and add about 100 carries. The addition of former Jets TE Chris Baker gives that strong blocking force on the end of the line that Kyle Brady provided in 2007. Bringing Greg Lewis in from Philadelphia is a move that could match Jabar Gaffney’s production from the #3 WR spot as well as soften the blow on special teams from Kelley Washington’s departure. Signing Shawn Springs gives the team a solid veteran presence to mentor a couple of young corners (Wheatley/Wilhite) and teamed with Ellis Hobbs shores up that #2 corner spot that had been a weakness all of last season (whether Hobbs or Springs is CB1, this position is now one of strength.) Finally, the team needs to make priority #1 signing Vince Wilfork to an extension. They can’t afford to let him hit the open market in 2010, especially with an uncapped season looming. Defensively, the re-signing of James Sanders gives the Patriots consistency in the defensive backfield with Sanders and Brandon Meriweather (an up and coming star) manning the two safety positions. No word yet on Rodney Harrison’s possible return, which at this point could only add depth.
The “weak spot” on the roster appears to be that OLB spot vacated by Vrabel. While Pierre Woods seems able to step into that spot full-time (or possible Shawn Crable, although at this point he would be more of a pass rush specialist who probably hasn’t yet mastered the defense well enough to be any more versatile) after showing flashes of brilliance from time to time. It’s also a possibility that free agent Jason Taylor could be signed. Taylor is an older player but one who could be an impact player for a year or possibly two in this system. Bill Belichick loves the guy, and Tom Brady has long considered him the best defensive player in the league. This would be a quick fix and would likely be accompanied by (cuing the duckboats and) the drafting of a young linebacker on day one. Another possibility is to trade for Carolina’s Julius Peppers, although it seems like a long shot given what he will likely command from a salary standpoint.
Regardless of the moves from here on out, 2009 looks bright for the Patriots.
