NFL Predictions 2008

It’s time. In just a few short hours, the goddamned Giants and Redskins will kick off the 2008 NFL season. I’m an NFL guy. I get excited by mini-camp, go nuts over the draft, and have watched NFL Network seemingly non-stop (with the occasional break for this whole “law school” thing) since about a week after The Game That Never Happened (TGTNH.) I have NFL Sunday Jesus (marketed by DirecTV as “Sunday Ticket”) and the upgraded HD SuperFan pack. Each month I get the glare from Mrs. DP as the DirecTV bill comes in roughly equal to the GDP of several African nations. But, I do have to supplement the Sunday Jesus with the SportsPak so that I can get NESN, too. Gotta have my Patriots Tailgate. Yeah, I kind of have a problem with the NFL. Which is why even though the team that fucking balls caught by helmets! goddamn shit fuck! won TGTNH is playing tonight, I’m still excited. Sure, it may be 90 degrees, but it’s officially fall to me. A new season means 32 teams have hope (yes, even the Lions, DB.) But that hope will soon fade, and my crystal ball is telling me the season will come out looking something like….THIS:

(note: I know the games don’t add up perfectly, I didn’t do a game-by-game breakdown this year, but instead this is a general guideline of my expected record for all teams.)

We’ll start in the AFC. The result of TGTNH notwithstanding, the AFC is heads and shoulders above the NFC (also known here on MATW as the JV.) That won’t change in 2008.

AFC EAST:

1. Patriots 14-2: For 1139 minutes and 25 seconds, the 2007 Patriots were the greatest team in the history of professional sports. The core of that team- who fell 35 seconds short in TGTNH- returns and is bolstered by the addition of #10 overall draft choice Jerod Mayo. While it’s unlikely that the Pats will be breaking the offensive records set a year ago, expect Tom Brady and Randy Moss to be the league leaders again in TDs, and a nastier, younger, Dom Capers influenced defense to redeem themselves for their last-minute falters in the last two postseasons. Once again the class of the league.

2. Bills 9-7: Behind surprising Trent Edwards, Buffalo made a run at the playoffs in 2007. Assuming the Toronto nonsense is not a distraction, Buffalo should challenge for a wild-card spot again in 2008. I like Marshawn Lynch a lot and think he has a chance to make a run at the rushing title as well.

3. Jets 7-9: Favre. Favre favre favre, favre favre. Favre favre favre, favre favre favre. Favre? Favre favre favre, favre favre! F-A-V-R-E! FAVRE FAVRE FAVRE! Favre favre favre favre favre favre. Jets still have holes, Buffalo is still better.

4. Dolphins 5-11: Well, at least they can’t get any worse. Actually, I think Parcells has this team looking much better. I like the Pennington signing, even if he can’t throw any farther than Nick Sheridan. He’ll be a calming influence on this team, and a good guy for eventual starter (I say week 13) Chad Henne to learn from. Ricky Williams has looked good, but Miami’s signing him to an extension was premature and probably a bad move. Considering he’ll be able to buy that much more tree.

AFC SOUTH

1. Colts 11-5: The Colts are an enigma. Everything I know about football tells me to pick the Jaguars here, but I just can’t bring myself to do it. I see Indy struggling a bit early, and then righting the ship when people write them off. Similar to the 2007 Chargers. I can’t pick against Manning & Co. in this division, though I think Marvin Harrison is done. Still love Joseph Addai, and hopefully Mike Hart will play enough so that Shawn Crable and Jerod Mayo can bury his punk ass in November.

2. Jaguars 11-5*: I like this team a lot. I think David Garrard is a top notch QB and will take his game to the next level in 2008. Look for more of Maurice Jones-Drew in the Jags backfield as Fred Taylor shows signs of aging, but somehow makes the most of his carries. John Henderson will continue to hurt people.

3. Texans 9-7: I have a funny feeling Houston is close to making a move toward a playoff spot. Mario Williams has become an absolute animal, allowing the Texans the ability to laugh, mock and taunt those who chastised them for taking him over Reggie Bush. If Matt Schaub can play consistently, the Texans will be playing meaningful football in December.

4. Titans 8-8: Possibly the worst offensive playoff football team I have ever seen. Vince Young regressed and now is at a critical junction in his career. The Pacman distractions are behind them, but I’m not sure that Alge Crumpler is enough to make another playoff run in this division.

AFC NORTH

1. Browns 11-5: This is normally not the type of team I jump on, because I think the hype sets them up for failure. But I think the Browns will be pretty good this year. Romeo Crennel is a hell of a coach, and Cleveland is poised to have a well-rounded team. Donte Stallworth is a great addition to complement Braylon Edwards and Jamal Lewis looked like the Jamal Lewis of old in the Cleveland backfield in 2007.

2. Steelers 9-7*: The Steelers added Rashard Mendenhall to the backfield in the off-season creating a dangerous 1-2 combo with Willie Parker. Unfortunately, the Pittsburgh line is pretty awful. Still, the Steelers are a good football team, and solid enough to get into the post-season, but probably not championship material.

3. Bengals 7-9: Players changing names to “Ocho Cinco,” re-signing guys like Chris Henry, a porous defense and a never-healthy Chris Perry as the #1 back doesn’t sound too promising for what I predict to be Marvin Lewis’s last Bengal team. It makes you wonder what could have been had a cheap shot not been levied on Carson Palmer’s knee in the playoffs a couple of years ago.

4. Ravens 5-11: With Troy Smith sitting at home eating Rocky Road (adults get tonsillitis? Really?) and Delaware rookie Joe Flacco getting the start, it looks to be a rocky road for the Ravens from week 1. Baltimore will rely heavily on Willis McGahee and a defense that is a shell of its former self while Flacco adjusts to the NFL.

AFC SOUTH

1. Chargers 13-3: Norv Turner is crazy allowing Shawne Merriman to play and risk his career with torn knee ligaments. But you can’t help but admire his heart and dedication to the team- something that is again a question with LaDanian Tomlinson, who we last saw bundled up in a parka and rocking his Darth Vader mask on the bench as Philip Rivers gutted out 4 quarters in the AFC title game loss to the Patriots. Tomlinson is talented, but as he enters the downside of his career (the RB shelf life isn’t very long) he’s going to have to ask the wizard for a heart if the Chargers are going to make a Super Bowl run. CB Antonio Cromartie is the best defensive player in the league.

2. Broncos 8-8: Denver flat out isn’t that good. They’re damn lucky to be playing in this terrible division. Jay Cutler should take the next step up as he continues to be the best QB in his class.

3. Raiders 6-10: If anything, the JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden Raiders will be interesting. MATW is selfishly hoping that blog-favorite Justin Fargas can repeat his 1,000 yard performance from 2007 again in 2008.

4. Chiefs 3-13: Kansas City really, really, really sucks. So badly that I don't want to write about them.

NFC EAST

1. Cowboys 13-3: Dallas is the class of the NFC. Now they have to prove that they can get over the hump. QB Tony Romo has proven that he’s able to pull top notch Hollywood trim, but not so much when it comes to winning playoff games. If Dallas can keep TO and Pacman distractions to a minimum- and I’m betting they can- they’ll find themselves in Tampa next February. Rookie RB Felix Jones should make an immediate impact.

2. Eagles 10-6*: Philly is back. QB Donovan McNabb has another run in him, and I look for McNabb to bounce back with one of his best years ever. Brian Westbrook is a known commodity and the addition of Asante Samuel gives the Eagles’ defense a boost. Should Dallas struggle, Philly will be right there to take the East.

3. Redskins 8-8: I like Jason Campbell a lot. The Redskins eeked into the playoffs last year and while I don’t anticipate a return for the Skins in the first season under Jim Zorn, they’ll continue to be a solid squad and hang around in the East.

4. Giants 7-9: This pick doesn’t have much to do with TGTNH and more to do with the increased pressure on the defending gag champs and the loss of Michael Strahan and Osi Unemyiora. That’s a lot to overcome, especially playing in this rough division. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants made the playoffs, or if they finished dead last. I would be surprised if they didn’t win at least 7 games, though.

NFC SOUTH

1. Saints 11-5: New Orleans was the disappointment of 2007, opening at 0-4, coming all the way back, and then collapsing down the stretch. The talent is still here and Sean Payton will make it work in 2008. New Orleans has the most talent of any team in this division and my money is on Drew Brees, Marques Colston and Co. to put it together and host a playoff game.

2. Panthers 10-6: This requires a healthy Jake Delhomme, which may be a mythical creature along the lines of Sasquatch. Carolina got the steal of the draft in RB Jonathon Stewart from Oregon. He will make an immediate impact in Charlotte.

3. Buccanneers 8-8: Tampa’s handling of the Favre situation was interesting. I’m not sure Jeff Garcia feels wanted in Tampa, and I’m not sure even if he plays up to his performance level of 2007 that will be enough to get the Bucs into the postseason. This team just feels like an 8-8 team.

4. Falcons 2-14: Awful. Just awful. Sorry, Matt Ryan. Look into AFLAC.

NFC NORTH

1. Vikings 12-4: This team is flat nasty…until it comes to the QB position. Adrian Peterson is the best back in the league, the defensive line scares me, and I don’t even play. The addition of Jared Allen is enough to win the North. If Tarvaris Jackson plays smart football, the Vikings may get their chance to play for a ring.

2. Packers 10-6*: Aaron Rodgers is going to be a good QB this year. The question is whether Green Bay fans will let him. Green Bay fans need to embrace the mullet-rocking Rodgers as one of their own. The Packers should make the playoffs again and with a few bounces could get back to the NFC title game. I can’t see them beating Dallas or Minnesota though.

3. Lions 7-9: Cut players stealing their replacement’s underwear. Only under Matt Millen. At least taking Ernie Sims was a better choice than Matt Leinart. Who would’ve known?

4. Bears 5-11: If they have a trick play where they can line up on offense in punt formation, and punt to Devin Hester themselves, they could make the playoffs. Otherwise, they probably aren’t scoring very much at all.

NFC WEST

1. Seahawks 9-7: Seattle wins this division by default. They’re actually getting worse, but there’s no one else to take the West.

2. Cardinals 8-8: The Cardinals are perpetually the “breakout” team. They still don’t have enough to take this division, but are getting closer. Dominique Rogers-Cromartie was one of the best picks in the draft.

3. 49ers 6-10: Alex Smith is a bust, Frank Gore can’t do it all himself, and their #1 draft pick went to a 16-0 team. Patrick Willis will become one of the best backers in the league, though.

4. Rams 6-10: Well, at least Steven Jackson is in the fold and not sitting at home watching the Rams on TV. Of course, Marc Bulger still makes Jake Delhomme look durable. Even in the NFC West…the Rams have no prayer.


Playoffs:

AFC:

1. Patriots
2. Chargers
3. Browns
4. Colts
5. Jaguars
6. Steelers

Wild-Card Round:

(3) Browns over (6) Steelers
(5) Jaguars over (4) Colts

Divisional Round

(1) Patriots over (5) Jaguars
(2) Chargers over (3) Browns

AFC Championship (Foxborough, MA)

(1) Patriots 31, (2) Chargers 16

NFC:

1. Cowboys
2. Vikings
3. Saints
4. Seahawks
5. Eagles
6. Packers
Wild-Card Round:

(3) Saints over (6) Packers
(5) Eagles over (4) Seahawks

Divisional Round:

(1) Cowboys over (5) Eagles
(2) Vikings over (3) Saints

NFC Championship Game (Irving, TX)

(1) Cowboys 27, (2) Vikings 17

SUPER BOWL XLIII (Tampa, FL)

New England Patriots 30, Dallas Cowboys 24

The biggest matchup America could ask for will happen this year. Both New England and Dallas are the class of their conferences. The Cowboys will come out early and take the lead into halftime, but the Patriots won’t be denied. Brady to Moss will reign supreme. The Pats redeem themselves for TGTNH and win ring #4.


Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady, Patriots

AWARDS:

NFL MVP: Tom Brady, Patriots
Offensive Player of the Year: Tom Brady, Patriots
Defensive Player of the Year: Antonio Cromartie, Chargers
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jerod Mayo, Patriots
Coach of the Year: Andy Reid, Eagles

Player who breaks out and becomes a star: LaMarr Woodley, Steelers. MATW favorite Woodley is ready to have a monster season and anchor the Steeler pass-rush.

Player who is already a star, but disappoints: Eli Manning, Giants. The pressure is on Eli, and with a diminished NYG defense, he needs to step up in order for the Giants to have a chance to defend their title. His only escape from the heat could be that the runner-up for this title is the guy who is new in town and quarterbacking that other New York team.

Running Back who is being caught from behind by Father Time: LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers. His window is closing. With no Michael Turner behind him and Darren Sproles not really an every-down back, can he take the pounding? His nancy-boy behavior in the AFC title game leads me to believe that’s a resounding “NO!”