NCAA Tournament Picks

The NCAA Hockey brackets were announced on Sunday. Expected to head to Madison and play in the Midwest Regional, Michigan got sent to Albany where we’ll be playing in the East. Here are the brackets, as well as my picks:

Albany (East)
No. 1 Michigan
No. 2 St. Cloud State
No. 3 Clarkson
No. 4 Niagara

Colorado Springs (West)
No. 1 New Hampshire
No. 2 Colorado College
No. 3 Michigan State
No. 4 Notre Dame

Madison (Midwest)
No. 1 North Dakota
No. 2 Denver
No. 3 Wisconsin
No. 4 Princeton

Worcester (Northeast)
No. 1 Miami
No. 2 Boston College
No. 3 Minnesota
No. 4 Air Force

Initially, I heard some outrage from Michigan fans on going out east. Personally, I couldn’t be happier with our bracket. As the tournament’s #1 overall seed, having to play a Badger team in Madison would suck, even if they do have a losing record. Niagara is a good team and can put the puck in the net with the best of them, but the road to the Frozen Four is pretty east for Michigan. My regional picks:

East: Michigan 5, Niagara 2; Clarkson 2, St. Cloud State 1; Michigan 4, Clarkson 1. MICHIGAN ADVANCES TO FROZEN FOUR
In this region, Michigan is head and shoulders above all. Niagara has a decent offense and an atrocious penalty kill. Michigan’s top power play line should be able to put a couple in the net and skate away with a W. Look for an early goal by the maize and blue. Clarkson has a solid goaltender in Dave Leggio and should be able to pick up a W behind him if they can stay out of the penalty box and keep St. Cloud’s WCHA leading power play off the ice. St. Cloud is 0-6 all-time in the tourney and will be 0-7 come Friday. In the regional final, Michigan’s depth and offensive prowess should be too much for Clarkson. I look for Leggio to keep the Golden Knights in the game for a while, but Michigan to take control late.

West: UNH 4, Notre Dame 1; Colorado College 5, Michigan State 1; Colorado College 3, UNH 2.
COLORADO COLLEGE ADVANCES TO FROZEN FOUR
The west is easily the deepest region in the tournament. UNH and CC are easily the top two teams playing in Colorado Springs, defending champ Michigan State is an underachieving third seed and Notre Dame is the best 4 in the tournament. I really don’t see UNH having any problem with the Irish. Jeff Jackson will have his team ready, but I like Hockey East player of the year Jeff Reagan in net combined with a formidable offensive team led by Matt Fornataro and Mike Radja to advance rather easily. In the other game, Colorado College is playing on their home ice and that life should allow the Tigers to smoke Michigan State. MSU hasn’t looked good in a couple of months and the Spartans’ only hope is if goaltender Jeff Lerg can stand on his head and steal one for the team. That’s a tall task against Chad Rau and the Tigers in Colorado Springs. CC pours it on late and sends MSU home in round one as a disappointing title defense ends early. In the regional final, the Tigers get retribution for 2003 when they were the #1 seeded team at the regional at Yost, yet faced a fired up Michigan team and were sent packing. This has the makings of a great game, and I see the Tigers prevailing with a late goal in front of their home crowd to win 3-2.

Midwest: North Dakota 4, Princeton 0; Wisconsin 2, Denver 1; North Dakota 3, Wisconsin 2.
NORTH DAKOTA ADVANCES TO FROZEN FOUR
The midwest will be the talk of the tournament when sub-.500 host Wisconsin takes down Denver in the opening round. The Kohl Center will be rocking this weekend, and for #1 seed North Dakota, it will be like playing 2 road games, as the crowd is certainly going to be anti-Sioux in the first round. There is no reason that this should not be the North Dakota regional, however, since the Sioux are absolutely loaded. TJ Oshie and Ryan Duncan lead the offense and Jean-Philippe Lamoreaux is a rock in net for possibly the most scary team in the nation. The Wisconsin crowd won’t be enough to get the Badgers past North Dakota, though. The 3-2 score in the regional final will be courtesy of a late Badger goal that fills the Kohl Center with false hopes of a comeback.

Northeast: Miami 3, Air Force 1; Boston College 4, Minnesota 2; Boston College 4, Miami 3 (OT).
BOSTON COLLEGE ADVANCES TO FROZEN FOUR
The northeast is really the only region where I can see a different team advancing. Either BC or Miami really is good enough to come out of Worcester. Miami has consistently been one of the nation’s top 3 teams this year alongside Michigan and North Dakota. The RedHawks have a strong goaltender in Jeff Zatkoff as well as offensive firepower behind Ryan Jones and Nathan Davis. I don’t expect Air Force to challenge Miami. The Eagles of Boston College lean heavily on junior Nathan Gerbe. Despite really relying on one line, and freshman goaltender Jon Muse’s shaky tendencies, BC should have little problem taking down an atypical Minnesota team that finished seventh in the WCHA this season, despite a late run by the Gophers. The Miami-BC game should be the best game of the opening weekend. I’m counting on it going to overtime and the BC-partisan Worcester crowd leaving in ecstasy after Gerbe nets the winner sending BC on to Denver.

FROZEN FOUR: Michigan, Colorado College, North Dakota, Boston College

Semifinal #1: Michigan 4, Colorado College 3
MICHIGAN ADVANCES TO NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Playing CC in Denver is less scary than playing CC in Colorado Springs. Just slightly, though. There are only two teams in this tournament that scare me. CC is one of them. But, CC likes to play Michigan’s style. CC is an offensive team, that likes to play up and down the ice. While the Tigers have been able to rely on freshman goaltender Richard Bachmann for the majority of the season (he earned WCHA player of the year honors) even the best young goaltenders have had shaky Frozen Four performances (Al Montoya…damn Gophers.) The Wolverines’ hopes ride on Billy Sauer. If Sauer plays like he did Saturday night at the Joe, he’s one of the best in the nation and the team will probably not get beat. If he plays like he did Friday night, letting in a couple of soft goals and forcing the offense to put 4 or 5 on the board out of necessity, Michigan will get bounced. I think Michigan is a deeper team than CC and should be able to take the pressure off of Sauer with an early goal or two, and stave off a late comeback attempt.

Semifinal #2: North Dakota 4, Boston College 1
NORTH DAKOTA ADVANCES TO NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Nathan Gerbe won’t be enough to beat the Sioux. North Dakota’s two most recent losses were at the hands of red hot goaltending. BC will need Muse to stand on his head to have any sort of a chance in this game and I think that the Eagles will parallel the Michigan teams of 2002 and 2003 which expended a lot of energy just to get to the Frozen Four in front of a partisan crowd, only to run into a buzzsaw of a team on a mission. I’d like to pick BC here to setup a 1998 rematch, but logic defies me. North Dakota smokes ‘em.

National Championship Game: Michigan 3, North Dakota 2 (OT)
MICHIGAN WINS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
The thought of playing North Dakota almost makes me wet my pants. The Sioux are good. REAL good. Plus, I don’t know if I have the trust in Billy Sauer to pick Michigan. North Dakota has ended our season the past two years in the first round of the tournament. In 2006, they crushed us 5-1. Last season, we opened the first period AND second period with a pair of goals in the first minute- 4 goals just in the first minute of those periods. Yet we lost 8-6. It was probably Sauer’s worst game. It’s reasons like this that it is increasingly more difficult to pick Michigan to win this game. Forcing myself to have that Sauer trust. Can he outplay Lamoreaux? Logic tells me to pick North Dakota. But this Michigan season really defies logic, no? Picked to finish 4th in the CCHA, the Wolverines have won everything this season. College Hockey Showcase? Check. Great Lakes Invitational? Check. CCHA Regular Season? Check. CCHA Tournament? Check. Sometimes, there are teams that just manage to find that intangible and ride it to a magical season. Without a doubt, a victory in the NCAA tournament would cap the most amazing Michigan hockey season ever. Kevin Porter is a lock to win the Hobey Baker this year, and since this seems to be the season of karma for Michigan, we’ll go with a 3-2 overtime score (channeling some of that ’96 and ’98 karma) as well as the perfect ending- Porter’s Brendan Morrison moment, scoring on a one-timer off of a two-on-one with Kolarik in the first overtime.