The only thing to fear...

Look at everything on paper. Michigan should win this weekend's tilt with Wisconsin, and it really shouldn't even be terribly difficult.

After all, Wisconsin is banged up. Alan Langford is out (Manningham and Arrington just drooled a bit). Jason Chapman is out (the right side of the line just breathed a sigh of relief). PJ Hill may or may not be out, but he's hurting (backup RB Zach Brown's sphincter just tightened up).

Michigan appears to be getting healthy. Hart and Henne both say they're playing.

True, the game is at Camp Randall Stadium, well known as a loud, intimidating place to play. However, this Michigan team already has experience playing in hostile environments, taking down both Illinois and Michigan State. The 11:00 a.m. local start should help out matters a bit...even Badgers can't get all that wasted by 10:30.

Michigan has won 8 of the last 9 matchups between these teams, with only a terribly executed defensive stand at the end of the 2005 game standing between Wisconsin and PSU-like streak of futility.

Michigan has run off 8 straight wins, while Wisconsin has gone 3-3 after a wholly unimpressive 4-0 start. To date, Wisconsin's most impressive win was against Indiana. The specifics of the game are irrelevant...if Indiana is your best win, you haven't done that much.

Still, statistically, things look pretty even. Wisconsin averages 5 more yards per game than Michigan, while the Wolverines have outscored the Badgers by a single point this year. Take injuries into account, however, and those numbers seem less intimidating.

Even if Hill is running at 100%, Michigan has shown a tendency to shut down big-assed Wisconsin running backs.

So why am I afraid?

Imagine this scenario: Michigan holds a 10 point lead late in the third quarter. Hart and Henne have been performing decently, and the Michigan defense has kept Wisconsin from doing too much damage. Wanting to avoid injury before next week's tilt with the Buckeyes, several starters are lifted. Michigan's offense languishes, as Carr/DeBord keep running Brown or Minor off tackle in an attempt to run the clock. Wisconsin gets desperate. Michigan goes into prevent.

We've seen it before.

Just to name a few examples, there was Illinois in 1999, Purdue in 2000, and half the damn schedule in 2005. Too many second half leads have been ineffectively sat on over the course of Lloyd Carr's tenure for me to ever feel terribly confident. The circumstances of this game seem to lend themselves to this type of situation.

Simply put, dinged up skill position players + The Game next week = this particular blogger remaining uncomfortable until the game ends.

Despite the historical precedent for my fears, I still think Michigan wins this one. Wisconsin's offense is too reliant on PJ Hill running effectively. Their defense is susceptible to the running game (as we saw with Beanie Wells and Maurice Wells running wild in the last twenty minutes of the Ohio State matchup last week). Mario Manningham has rebounded to post together a string of dominant performances. Tyler Donovan is competent, but isn't going strike fear in anyone's heart. Michigan's scoring defense is 3 points better than Wisconsin's (even accounting for App State and Oregon).

Michigan should win this game. I'm calling it 30-16.

Still, I'm avoiding Red Bull while watching this one.