Offense:
About this time last year, we were being bombarded with articles about how explosive the 2005 Michigan offense would be. The Detroit News ran the photo of Henne, Hart, and Avant with"Offensive Firepower" headlining their 2005 CFB preview. This was supposed to rival the 2000 offense of Henson-Terrell-Thomas. And it all turned out so beautifully......meh. They were completely average. Michigan fans left the Northern Illinois game pleased that their team had put up 33 while putting together a vanilla attack that would make Bo Schembechler blush. Clearly, they were holding it all back. We all eagerly anticipated what we were going to unleash on Notre Dame the following week! 38-0 Part Deux! One week and 10 measly points later, we were left wondering what happened.
I think the 2006 season is going to provide us with the offensive performance we expected last year. With Terry Malone out as offensive coordinator and Mike DeBord returning to his old job, we at least have an idea of what we're going to see. While no one will mistake DeBord for Joe Tiller, he does favor an open passing tree. How many times did we groan and grumble as Henne dumped it off to Massaquoi or Breaston for a 3 yard gain on 3rd and 8? Well, expect less of that this season as our receivers will be utilizing the entire field, and there will be less bunch routes for Henne to try and decipher coverage from. DeBord will still be working within Lloyd Carr's offense, but think back to the 2000 Orange Bowl....and smile.
Quarterbacks:
Henne is on the verge of breaking out. This season he should be able to set all meaningful UM QB records,
and typically their 3rd year in the program is when our QBs tend to "get it." Henne was able to work through his freshman and sophomore struggles on the field, becoming the first true freshman EVER to quarterback a BigTen Championship team, and his play in the Rose Bowl against Texas was absolutely amazing. The expectations were very high for him last season, and he had an average year. He struggled at times (Wisconsin), and played poised and well at other times, but in general, he left a little more to be expected. His numbers (58.4% passing, 2526 yards, and 23-8 TD/INT) were decent, and on par with his 2004 numbers (60.2%, 2743 yards, and 25-12 TD/INT) but really didn't tell the entire story. Rumors are that Henne finally has developed into a team leader, and perhaps the departure of well-respected upperclassman Matt Guttierrez to Idaho State has something to do with that. Henne is a top 3 conference QB (with Ohio State's Troy Smith, and Michigan State's Drew Stanton) and has the potential to flirt with Heisman candidacy throughout the season if he plays like he's capable, and Michigan continues to win. Henne is not a question mark at all. Backing him up will be Redshirt Freshman Jason Forcier. Forcier is a guy capable of developing into a solid backup (he'll likely a career backup with Ryan Mallett in the fold for 2007 to learn from Henne), but at this point, I would not be comfortable with him under center, and few would. With Forcier under center, I see this as an 8-4; 7-5 type team again, which, just isn't acceptable at Michigan. He provides a dual-threat dynamic that Henne really doesn't, but the drop-off in throwing accuracy and the grasp of the offense would be huge. Forcier has a strong arm, but I question how he would handle himself running the offense. Hopefully, he'll see significant time in the first two games, and we can learn a little more about what he can do. Walkon 5th year Jeff Kastl will probably handle the third string responsibilities, but is no real threat to see meaningful snaps. True freshman David Cone comes into the fold this fall as well, but I don't really ever expect to see him under center for Michigan.Position Grade: B- (I'm giving them an A- with Henne alone, but the significant lack of depth is a huge concern)
Running Backs
Similar to Henne, Mike Hart had a world of hype surrounding him coming into 2005. The 2004 BigTen Freshman-of-the-Year, he had 1,455 yards and 9 TDs, became the first UM back EVER to rush for 200 yards in 3 straight games, and 150 yards in 5 straight games. Once he took over the position for an ineffective David Underwood, he never looked back. Last year, however, Hart was plagued by injuries. He missed the Notre Dame game (tried to give it a go, but just couldn't), Eastern Michigan, and Wisconsin before coming back to annhialate a confused
Michigan State defense. Hart made the Spartans look silly and completely dominated, finishing with 218 yards and a TD on 36 carries. He piled up another 200 yard game in the loss to Minnesota, and 108 yards in the Penn State win before reinjuring himself in the Iowa game, and missing the rest of the season. He played briefly against Ohio State, but was ineffective. Hart states that he is completely healthy this season, and a healthy Hart means bad news for opposing defenses. Hart is easily the BigTen's best back, and one of the nation's best as well. Michigan has tremendous depth at the position, with Kevin Grady dropping pounds in the offseason, and really committing himself to the team. His cuts are precise and sharp, and he is hitting the holes with a lot more explosiveness than we saw last year. Grady seems ready to live up to his hype, and the improvements he's been making should allow him to take some of the load off of Hart and keep Hart healthy. There's a slew of talent behind the Big Two as well, with Jerome Jackson and true freshman Carlos Brown ready to run as well. Brown showed electrifying speed at the spring game, wowing the crowd with his explosiveness hitting the next level of the defense. Jackson is a good back who has flashes of brilliance, but overall is the weakest of the four. For Lloyd to play Brown this year with our depth at this position makes me wonder exactly how good he is. I have absolutely no concerns with the RB position. The FB slot looks like it will go to Obi Oluigbo, who Lloyd has been raving about (numerous "tremendous"' drops) since spring. Oluigbo has had significant contributions on Special Teams. Will Paul will see some time in the backfield as well. Brian Thompson is now a TE.Position Grade: A
Wide Receivers
Well, just like the running back position, there is a plethora of talent on the roster to catch passes from Henne. While leading receiver Jason Avant has moved on to the Philadelphia Eagles, there are many young guys itching to replace him in the lineup. While all the offseason talk seems to revolve around Steve Breaston, I think consensus is that Breaston is not a #1 type guy, and is most effective in the slot. Breaston is one of the best gamebreakers in the BigTen (along with Ted Ginn of Ohio State, whom is is most frequently compared) and when used effectively (in the slot) is one of the best players on the field. Early last season we saw the ugliness that is Breaston as a deep threat. Luckily, we have possibly the most exciting young receiver in the nation ready to fill the shoes that Avant, Braylon Edwards, Marquise Walker, and co. have held as the #1 receiver. Mario Manningham burst onto the scene as a true freshman last season, scoring Michigan's lone (ugh) TD against Notre Dame, finding the end zone against MSU, and on a remarkable flea flicker against Wisconsin. Manningham stunned the college football world with possibly the most electric moment in Michigan Stadium's storied history with a dramatic last-second walkoff TD catch to defeat undefeated Penn State. While Mario's 27 receptions for 433 yards seemed rather pedestrian, his 6 TD catches and flare for the dramatic (he also scored the tying TD in the 4th against Penn State on a beautiful shoestring catch in front of a sprawling Justin King) made him a fan favorite. In fact, Mario's 6 TDs rank him 30th all-time among
Michigan pass-catchers, and he trails Avant's career total of 13 by only 7 scores. A mark he is certain to top this year. Manningham's potential is sky-high, and Braylon Edwards' career mark of 39 TDs is not out of reach. Lining up opposite of Manningham and Breaston appears to be redshirt sophomore Adrian Arrington. After seeing limited action his freshman season (2 passes for 12 yards in 8 games), Arrington was injured in last season's opening game after a 15 yard kickoff return, and redshirted. Arrington is a Braylon Edwards type receiver in that he has the ability both to stretch the field with his speed and running ability after the catch, and also go up and get a jump ball. I would expect Arrington to fill the jump-ball role in short yardage situations. Redshirt freshman LaTerryal Savoy is a big, strong kid who had a great spring and is looking to contribute. Doug Dutch is another small, fast guy, who's speed may land him a spot returning kicks. True freshman Greg Mathews is also expected to see some time, and 5th year senior Carl Tabb will play as well. The biggest loss of the offseason, sophomore Antonio Bass, will be absorbed by the depth of the position. Bass' loss is big, however, as there were rumors that he would not only allow Michigan some offensive opportunities exploiting his versatility, but also that he would be taking snaps under center, and serving as an emergency QB should Henne go down. At least recent news on Bass' injury has been positive, and it looks like he will be able to return for 2007.Position Grade: B+
Tight Ends
Mike DeBord's return as offensive coordinator put three words into the mouth of every Michigan fan: TIGHT END WAGGLE! A staple of the Michigan offense in the late 90s, the tight ends have been underutilized of late (unless passes bouncing off of Tim Massaquoi's club hands are taken into consideration), and that looks to change. Tyler Ecker, who is working on his 17th season in Ann Arbor (OK, OK, 7th year, 5th season) is as good as they come in the BigTen. Ecker is a big, strong target for Henne with reliable hands and the ability to move quickly after the catch (remember his 2004 game-winner against Minnesota) and provides solid blocking as well. While Ecker has drawn the ire of Michigan fans for some poor decisions such as not pitching the ball to Steve Breaston at the end of the Alamo Bowl, or not getting out of bounds at the end of the Ohio State game to setup a potential Hail Mary play, these really are not indicative of Ecker's performance, and Ecker is one of the best in the nation. Looking at seeing a lot of time opposite Ecker is redshirt sophomore Mike Massey. Massey really impressed me last season, coming on strong as the season progressed. He caught 8 passes for 51 yards and found the end zone twice. Massey, like Ecker, has the ability to catch and run. Redshirt freshman Carson Butler is a burner at the TE spot, running the 100m in 11 seconds. Brian Thompson switches to TE from FB.
Position Grade: B
Offensive Line
The biggest question mark for Michigan heading into 2006 is the offensive line. Traditionally, Michigan is able to overpower the opponent with a big, strong, quick, cohesive unit up front. This was not the case as injuries ravaged the Wolverines last season. There was dedication in the offseason to getting back to that "basic" for the program, and the guys hit the weights, and dropped some pounds to adapt to Andy Moeller's "play better, move better, play harder, play longer" slogan for 2006. Michigan loses Adam Stenavich, Matt Lentz, and Leo Henige, all who started last season. Jake Long is as good as they get, and is looking at a move to the left side for 2006. He should be joined by Adam Kraus (moving over from C). Mark Bihl is the favorite to lineup under center, and I expect Rueben Riley to end up at the right guard slot, and Mike Kolodziej to beat out Alex Mitchell to start the season on the end of the line on the right side. Mitchell will see time early as we try and work out the ideal lineup, and it will be interesting to see if Lloyd pulls the trigger and lets either freshman Justin Boren or Steve Schilling see the field. Right now, I see the Long, Kraus, Bihl, Riley, Kolodziej lineup up front to be our best unit. Riley seems to be a shell of his former self, the broken thumbed holding machine from last season. This unit will be the key to the team's success. The Vandy and Central games will be huge to get some cohesiveness before the trip to South Bend, where we will see what this team is made of...
Postion Grade: C+
Defensive Line
From one side of the ball to the other. This unit is one of the nation's best. Anchored by the #1 DE in the nation, LaMarr Woodley, expect to see one of the most ferocious Michigan lines since the late 80s. Woodley led UM in forced fumbles (3), tackles for loss (16), and sacks (7) last year to go along with his 48 tackles in only 8 starts due to a nagging arm injury (Woodley played in 11 games). Woodley continued to feast on QBs, knocking Minnesota's Bryan Cupito out of the game in a crushing blow. Cupito was the second QB Woodley has taken out, joining Michigan State's Drew Stanton from the previous season. Joining Woodley on the line will be tackles junior Alan Branch and sophomore Terrance Taylor, and redshirt sophomore Tim Jamison on the op
posite end. Branch had a fantastic sophomore season, and is looking to benefit from a season spent completely at tackle. In 2005, he was forced to play some DE, and for a player of his size, being able to remain anchored inside will allow him to dominate. At 6' 305 lbs, Taylor definitely has the size to hold his own opposite Branch and help stuff the run. Jamison saw limited action, but when he was on the field, really showed flashes of brilliance and has fantastic pass-rushing capabilities. He tallied 3 sacks and earned Freshman All-BigTen honors. Jeremy Van Alstyne, Marques Walton, and James McKinney are all going to see some time on the line as well. The 2006 season promises to be one of the hardest-hitting we've seen in Ann Arbor in a long time.Postion Grade: A Linebackers
The biggest addition to the Michigan linebacking corps is coach Steve Szabo. Szabo has coached seemingly forever, and his golden resume includes 10 colleges, the New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, and Jacksonville Jaguard. Szabo provides Michigan with our first actual linebacker position coaching in about a decade. Szabo is teaching technique, schemes, and the basics of the position. From all indications, Michigan's linebacking corps will be the most refined and technically sound we've seen since Jarrett Irons. Dave Harris is the rock of this unit, and is a leaner, meaner version of the 2005 monster we saw at MLB, showing up 16 pounds lighter for camp. The big surprise here was the emergence of Shawn Crable rising up this spring and stealing the SAM job from incumbent Prescott Burgess. Burgess was none too pleased, and is pushing hard in camp to get the WIL job from Chris Graham, shedding a dozen pounds and showing a devotion to football he hasn't had in his previous 3 years on campus. Hard working sophomore John Thompson will continue to be a top reserve, and incoming five star freshman Brandon Graham is expected to see playing time as well.
Position Grade: B Secondary
The Wolverine secondary also is breaking in a new coach, Ron Lee. Lee will have an easy transition, as he has a veteran group that is the best in the BigTen. Senior CB Leon Hall is widely regarded as the best DB in the nation, and Hall's ability both as a shut-down corner, and his knack for the timely hit have him leading this unit. Hall's highlight reel includes a stellar forced fumble and fumble recovery for TD that set the tone early at Northwestern, and what was at the time thoght to be a game-saving interception of Michael Robinson in the 4th quarter against Penn State. Hall finished with 9 breakups, 4 INTs, 61 tackles, and 2 sacks. Opposite Hall, Morgan Trent seems to have the upperhand over Freshman Johnny Sears, and redshirt sophomore Charles Stewart. Trent was an honorable mention mention Freshman All-American last year, and made the Freshman All-BigTen squad. He had a fantastic game against Michigan State, with a key pass break-up in overtime. Safety Ryan Mundy returns following a season where he missed all but the first game, and was thought to have a career-threatening injury. He will be teamed with Brandent Englemon who is starting his second year at strong safety. Stewart, Sears, Anton Campbell and possibly true freshmen Jonas Mouton and Stevie Brown look to see some time as well.
Position Grade: A Special Teams
The return game is solid with Breaston back, and though he's had his problems, Garrett Rivas returns for his senior season as one of the nation's most accurate kickers. Redshirt freshman Zoltan Mesko is looking to wrestle the punting duties from senior Ross Ryan, though Ryan figures to handle kickoff duties again.
Position Grade: B
SEASON OUTLOOK:
This is a statement season for the Maize & Blue. Last year's 7-5 record was unacceptable in Ann Arbor, and the team has spent 8 months taking heat for the 4th quarter meltdowns that plagued them in each loss. Unlike previous years, where 3 and 4 loss seasons were met with excuses and complacency, coach Lloyd Carr seems to have shaken things up. His dismissals of long-time assistants and coordinators Terry Malone and Jim Herrmann were surprising to those familiar with the Michigan program. Lloyd and co. have also focused hard on conditioning in the offseason, and are dedicated to making sure the team is conditioned to play hard for 60 minutes. New defensive coordinator Ron English is committed to having the defense attack and swarm the ball. Gone are Jim Herrmann's complex zone blitzes and NFL-style schemes. On the offensive side, we all know what Mike DeBord brings to the table. His passing tree will be a welcome relief. The biggest emergence in the offseason has been Mike Hart's emergence as the hands-down team leader. It was Hart driving offseason conditioning, it was Hart making sure everyone was hitting the weights, and it's Hart who is instilling the winning attitude back into the Michigan team. As long as Hart can stay on the field, it appears Michigan will have their swagger back for the first time since Dhani Jones and Charles Woodson wore the maize & blue.
As always, Michigan has the talent to compete against anyone. But, they have some ghosts that are looming large again this year. 0-7 in their last 7 road openers. 6 straight seasons with a September loss. 1-3 in the last 4 against Notre Dame. 1-4 against Jim Tressel's OSU teams. The Wolverines start 2006 with 2 gimmies, Vanderbilt and Central Michigan. There are 2 weeks to get ready for what I think is the season's most important game, the trip to South Bend. Michigan will have the opportunity to exorcise 2 of those demons in what should be an extremely hyped national matchup with a highly ranked Irish squad. If they can pull that one out, the confidence they get should be able to take them through to Columbus without a loss, where they will be in for an incredible test. Call me crazy, but I like our chances against an OSU team we could have beaten last season without Hart, and with 9 starters that they have departed from defense. We will have no problem with Penn State, and Michigan State, and potential trap games exist with Wisconsin and Iowa. If they lose the Notre Dame game, we may be looking at another 8-4, 9-3 season going into the bowl. Call me crazy, but I'm betting on the former. I don't know where the loss will come, but I'm not predicting an undefeated campaign.
SEASON PREDICTION: 12-1; Big Ten Champions, Rose Bowl Champions
