Opponent Preview Week 1: Vanderbilt

As we move into the home stretch of the summer (less than 60 days...) and football fever starts to set in, I'm going to start rolling out my Michigan season outlook, and opponent previews. A week by week look at my insanely optimistic predictions for Michigan's 127th varsity squad should have everyone drinking the blue kool-aid by kickoff on September 2. We'll start with the Vanderbilt Commodores.

Vandy was a last minute replacement for Ball State, which filled nicely into the November 4 slot on the schedule, and allowed us the opportunity to avoid a home schedule completed by October 28. With that, old friend Brady Hoke gets to avoid the inevitable beatdown by 2 months, and we get a slightly more attractive season opener. Vandy is an SEC team, right? (Anyone disagreeing with me can take that argument up with Phil Fulmer.) So...what do we know about Vandy?

Well, Michigan is 9-0-1 all-time against the Commodores, with the last meeting being a 42-14 whooping at Michigan Stadium in 1969. Vandy has had 23 consecutive losing seasons, last making a bowl in 1982. Last year's Commodore team was actually very competitive. The 4-0 Commodores were the early season feel-good story, receiving votes in the polls, and then promptly losing at home to Middle Tennessee State. They hung with LSU (until the late 3rd quarter) Georgia, South Carolina and Florida, and beat Tennessee in Knoxville. So...Vandy's not the normal cupcake, right? Well, not so much. Last year, they had this guy you may have heard of named Jay Cutler who was pretty darn good at quarterbacking. They also lost 3 of their top 4 tacklers on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, Vandy returns just 12 starters (6 a side) from last year's oh-so-close 5-6 squad. Couple that with the fact that it's the opening game, well, this one could get ugly fast.

Vanderbilt will look to replace Cutler with either former Arizona starter Jr. Richard Kovalcheck (granted immediate eligibility as he pursues a graduate degree) or last year's backup So. Chris Nickson. Odds are Kovalcheck wins the gig, and throws off the already-printed LaMarr Woodley tee for week 1. Oh well. Looks like LaMarr will need to go for 2 kills in game 1. In the backfield with Kovalcheck will be the tandem of Cassen Jackson-Garrison, and Jeff Jennings, both juniors. Jackson-Garrison is more of a big play threat, racking up a few 40+ yard runs last year, but neither back is as intimidating as NIU's Garrett Wolfe was last year, combining for just 1055 yards. So. receiver Earl Bennett gives Kovalcheck a solid target to throw to. Last year he grabbed 79 balls, and 9 of them went for TDs (5 against Kentucky alone.) In fact, his last 4 games he made 49 catches. Not bad for a true frosh. I suppose Leon Hall will be tested out of the gate. Senior Marlon White should start opposite Bennett, and he had 34 catches last year for 6 TDs. They return 4 starters from the offensive line, but Michigan's defensive line and linebackers should have no problem with them. While Vandy's strength is the passing game, they were only able to average 27 ppg with Cutler last year. They're going to need more than that to win in Ann Arbor, and I can't see their Kovalcheck or Nickson having great success against the Michigan secondary.

Defensively, Vandy's probably not going to put up much of a fight. They return 2 starters from last year's secondary which ranked 69th in passing defense, So. CB Josh Allen, and So. FS Reshard Langford. Things don't look much better up front, the loss of LB Moses Osemwegie hurts, and Vandy really needs Sr. DE Chris Booker to step up this year if they want to have any opportunity to get out of the SEC East's basement.

The bottom line is that I see Michigan winning pretty handily. This game should be fairly predictable. Your typical Michigan season opener. I'm seeing a lot of Mike Hart early, Kevin Grady getting the bulk of the 2nd half carries, and both ending up with good numbers. We'll throw a couple of obligatory TDs in there (my guess is Manningham and Arrington) to make the crowd "ooh" and "aah", and in the end, won't really be able to take very much from this performance.

So, the DP super-early Week 1 prediction? MICHIGAN 42, Vanderbilt 13
Odds of winning: 97%